Headline numbers have changed quickly. Rather than falling to 2%, now in high 3s and will stay there for quite a while. Core firmer than it would have been without oil spike. Effects still look narrow - trimmed measures that take out extreme price spikes still reasonably under control. Real income growth is very low, turning negative. That will weigh on consumer spending.

People are grappling with big increase in gasoline costs. You typically see people manage that in short term by saving less, but weakness in income will weigh on consumer spending.

Not surprised. Need to be careful drawing big inferences from a couple months of spending data - numbers can be volatile. Would put weight on what we ought to see going forward given incomes and low saving rate. Expect softer consumption growth over the course of the year.

War needs to end and Fed officials need to feel it's behind them. Right now they don't know full extent of upside risk to inflation. If war ends and sequential inflation comes down, there will be a range of views on FOMC. Would also need some labor market softening. Still penciling that in but not certain about timing.

This would look more like a tariff - a one-time price level increase. Underlying inflation trends are fairly soft.

Just passage of time. Powell was sensible - changing guidance is not something you do every day. Many officials now feel this has been going on for months and we still don't know the end date. Taking more balanced outlook on rates makes sense.

Don't think investors expect a hike right away. They're saying we don't know scale and duration of war and consequences for inflation. Risk if war drags on long enough that bigger price spikes beyond energy could occur, creating contagion through expectations. In those circumstances a hike might seem more reasonable.

K-shaped theme was overblown last year but kernel of truth: strong equity market gains, house prices not doing much. Wealth effect from stocks comes from top of income distribution. Most consumption growth comes from income growth, jobs, real wage increases. This year K-shaped theme makes more sense - loss of Medicaid and food stamps hurts bottom, energy costs hurt bottom. Whether top outperforms depends on stock market.