We could get $125, $130 barrel oil very easily if this continues to unfold in a scale that is measured in months, not weeks. Middle East uncertainty playing through to energy sector could drive substantial oil price increases over medium term.

10-year yields are below 4% by the end of the year. Lower rates remains my base case. Long term bullish for treasuries. Flatter curve makes sense with 10-30yr outperforming. If Fed fights inflation/delays cuts, breakevens compress and nominal rates slip lower. Geopolitical uncertainty and potential consumer stress undermine growth.