Ives: AI Bears Have It Wrong

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Wedbush 3.0
Management Consulting $1.90B
Dan Ives 9.0

Ives: AI Bears Have It Wrong

ndx

I think tech stocks are gonna continue to rip into next year... This is a bull market. two more years left. Based on thesis of being in early innings (year 3) of an 8-10 year AI revolution with $3-4T in spending. Party analogy (10:30 PM to 4 AM) suggests sustained upward move.

12/23/2025 12:19:37 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.33%	+0.33%
12/19/2025 11:39:30 PM	long term up	60 days later	-1.76%	-1.76%
12/17/2025 8:51:27 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.54%	+2.54%
12/5/2025 3:46:17 PM	medium term up	21 days later	-0.40%	-0.40%
12/2/2025 1:42:35 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-0.07%	-0.07%
11/27/2025 4:00:33 PM	long term up	60 days later	+1.98%	+1.98%
11/20/2025 11:18:48 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+5.97%	+5.97%
11/14/2025 6:41:42 PM	medium term up	21 days later	+3.34%	+3.34%
11/14/2025 4:15:18 PM	long term sharp up	60 days later	+2.94%	+4.41%
11/13/2025 11:36:10 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.29%	+2.29%
11/12/2025 9:27:11 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.45%	+2.45%
11/10/2025 2:22:11 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	-2.87%	-4.31%
10/31/2025 9:00:30 PM	medium term sharp up	21 days later	-4.23%	-6.35%
10/31/2025 4:13:09 PM	medium term up	21 days later	-4.23%	-4.23%
10/30/2025 11:32:34 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.92%	-0.92%
10/25/2025 1:22:22 AM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+0.59%	+0.88%
10/22/2025 11:09:52 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.67%	+1.67%
10/8/2025 11:35:49 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+4.07%	+6.11%
10/6/2025 11:09:07 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	+3.17%	+4.76%
9/19/2025 2:28:50 PM	short term up	7 days later	-0.60%	-0.60%
9/9/2025 7:44:26 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.48%	+3.48%
9/4/2025 11:08:31 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.83%	+0.83%
9/3/2025 10:59:36 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.88%	+1.31%
8/28/2025 6:59:01 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+4.44%	+4.44%
8/28/2025 2:34:24 PM	short term up	5 days later	-+0.00%	-+0.00%
8/28/2025 2:19:58 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+4.44%	+4.44%
8/18/2025 11:44:31 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.61%	+1.61%
8/1/2025 6:56:57 PM	medium term up	21 days later	+1.02%	+1.02%
7/25/2025 10:00:50 PM	medium term sharp up	21 days later	+1.53%	+2.30%
7/23/2025 10:46:08 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+2.71%	+4.06%
7/14/2025 2:41:04 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.33%	+1.33%

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Dan Ives

Disagrees that Oracle is a loser. The AI revolution represents the first major US tech competition with China in 30 years. $3-4T will be spent in coming years, and Oracle will play a huge role. Current weakness is a buying opportunity.

Compares to bearish sentiment on Google a year ago that proved wrong. Acknowledges Oracle's balance sheet is weaker than other hyperscalers (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon) but emphasizes that when OpenAI calls, Oracle answers. Growth is measured in years, not quarters, with RPO of $400-500B ($300B from OpenAI).
Asks about Blue Owl reportedly not backing Oracle's $10B data center deal and what it signals.

Host
Dan Ives

Dismisses the report, comparing its likelihood to him playing in the NFL. Views this as a typical 'deep seek' moment for bears, not a time to panic. Sees Oracle as compelling on risk/reward.

Draws parallels to past market worries (Liberation Day, US-China tensions).
Asks about Amazon's discussions with OpenAI (chip use, $10B investment) and Amazon's role in the AI build-out.

Host
Dan Ives

Sees this as a huge opportunity for Amazon in data centers via AWS. Amazon needs to partner with OpenAI to be part of the core build-out, not left behind.

Notes Dell and Microsoft are at the top, and Google has had a cloud turnaround. Amazon must 'jump in the deep end of the pool' with OpenAI.
Asks if Amazon's Trainium chips can compete with Nvidia's.

Host
Dan Ives

States Nvidia (Jensen Huang) is the sole 'godfather of AI' with 12:1 demand/supply. Others (AMD, Google) will play but it's a long-term bet, like Apple vs. Intel.

Emphasizes we are in 'year three of an 8 to 10 year AI revolution'.
Asks for the biggest risk to his bullish story.

Host
Dan Ives

Identifies 'energy, energy, energy' as the biggest constraint and risk in the US.

States this is an AI revolution, not a bubble. Only 3% of US companies are on the AI path; when it hits 20%, 'the clock strikes midnight.' Sees nuclear as the answer. The US leads in tech, China leads in energy.
Asks if energy constraints show up in 2026 and how.

Host
Dan Ives

Believes it's a huge inflection point needing full government support and nuclear innovation.

Notes more data centers are under construction than are active. Solar/wind are stopgaps; nuclear is the necessary solution.
Asks if any tech name has run too far and should be backed off from near-term.

Host
Dan Ives

Suggests some names are at record highs but is specifically bullish on Tesla ($2-3T bull case) due to AI, autonomy, robotics, and Musk as 'wartime CEO'.

Concludes investors are *underestimating* the scale of the AI revolution. Uses analogy: party started at 9 PM, it's now 10:30 PM, and goes to 4 AM.
Repeats the party analogy: '10:30 PM until the party ends at 4 AM.'

Host

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