More Fed rate cuts priced in indicate positive risk outlook, dollar rally ending, dollar expected to weaken from here.

Looking deeper into US economic momentum, lagging data post-shutdown, Beige Book suggests K-shaped recovery with lower income households impacted, jobs showing more firing and less hiring.

FX markets are forward-looking - anticipating Fed cuts driving dollar weakness. Fed cutting only one piece of dollar weakness equation.

Shifts in FOMC board with possibly new chair announcement, names coming through more dovish nature, board changing to more dovish composition. US economy compared to others - Europe huge on fiscal agenda, optimistic for euro as anti-dollar proxy.

That is one point to note, but Fed trying to balance between rising inflation and unemployment rate moving higher.

Near term, labor market front and center in Fed thinking. On price side, different speakers say we have to wait to see especially impact of tariffs feeding through whether transitional or permanent.

100% - rate differential is one thing, big fiscal agenda coming through will take 1-2 years to see uplift.

Europe starting from low base in GDP improvement, will play into European currencies upside. Central bank divergence - aggressive easing priced in for Fed but ECB and other central banks seeing pockets of hikes priced in for 2026-2027, positive for other currencies versus US.

Too much negativity was priced in, announcement was 50-50 with income tax increases coming later, giving fiscal impulse to households through cost of living subsidies.

Price action looks like implemented to manage bond market, maintaining stability after 2022 gilt volatility. How it plays out next few years yet to see.

100% - budget is disinflationary, makes it easier for Bank of England to go ahead.

They've been sitting on edge with mix of hawks and doves, but with this budget will be more convinced to move needle especially because growth looks pretty soft in UK.