The opportunity to diversify outside the U.S. is among the greatest in history: Mary Ann Bartels

Mary Ann Bartels (Sanctuary Wealth) argues a new inflationary cycle began post-COVID, supporting a secular bull market in US tech until 2029-2030 (S&P 10,000-13,000). After that, a 15-20 year secular bear begins. She advises staying fully invested but rotating leadership from tech to small caps, commodities, energy, and international markets (Japan, Europe, EM ex-China). She sees 10-year yields normalizing around 5-6%, with potential to reach 10% long-term.

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international markets sharp up

Sanctuary Wealth 7.8
Asset Manager $27.00B
Mary Ann Bartels 8.0

The opportunity to diversify outside the U.S. is among the greatest in history: Mary Ann Bartels

dxy

Strong bullish call on international markets (Japan, Europe, EM ex-China) implies expectation of USD weakness to support those investments.

metals

Inflationary cycle and commodities leadership implies metals (precious and industrial) should benefit.

10/7/2025 4:30:18 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+2.72%	+4.07%
9/24/2025 3:01:03 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+2.86%	+4.29%

ndx

The leadership is tech, led by semiconductors, and that will continue to drive the markets out to the end of the decade.

9/24/2025 3:01:03 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.43%	+1.43%
8/28/2025 9:00:49 PM	long term up	60 days later	+11.09%	+11.09%
7/18/2025 3:28:55 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+0.76%	+1.14%

rut

The new leadership is going to be small cap.

3/2/2026 8:34:28 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-4.38%	-4.38%

wti

The new leadership is going to be commodities, energy.

yields

Longer term, you can get back up to 10%. Now we're normalizing somewhere around 5-6%.

10/7/2025 4:30:18 PM	long term down	61 days later	+1.04%	-1.04%
7/18/2025 3:28:55 PM	medium term down	21 days later	-2.26%	+2.26%

You had a 75 100 year-end S&P target already there. You're not raising it. But you're saying the next upward level to watch is 7800.

Joe Kernen
Mary Ann Bartels

I do think we should get a pullback. My long-term target is 10,000 to 13,000. That's where we're truly tracking.
Mary Ann Bartels

I gave the target of 10,000 to 13,000 peaking around 2029-2030. That will end the secular bull market that started in 2013.

Then you go into a secular bear market 15 to 20 years.
I think we've been in a secular bull since 1981. We didn't get back above 1000 until 1982.

Joe Kernen
Mary Ann Bartels

The secular bear market was from 2000 until 2013. That period was a sideways trading range. In 2013 you cleared the high and entered a new secular trend.
Mary Ann Bartels

I do think we've started an inflation cycle. There are three phases: inflation boost (we're in now, helps revenue/earnings), then a squeeze (equities can still do well), then hyperinflation (real problem).
Mary Ann Bartels

Not necessarily be out of the market, but be in something different than tech. New leadership: small cap, commodities, energy, and international markets (Japan, Europe, EM ex-China).

I haven't said to be invested in international markets for a secular trend in my entire career. I think there's a new secular bull market started in Japan, Europe, and emerging markets ex-China.
International markets will not be in a secular bear. You're really talking about US technology sector being in the secular bear.

Joe Kernen
Mary Ann Bartels

Correct. Because of the market cap, it drives down the average. The entire S&P will be correct. It looks like a repeat of 1999-2000.
Your inflation forecast - hyperinflation related to $40 trillion in debt?

Joe Kernen
Mary Ann Bartels

I do think we have an inflation issue. From 1980 down to 2021 we were in a deflationary event. That ended around COVID. Now we've started a new inflationary cycle that can last 10, 15, 20 years.
Where does that put the 10-year? In the 5 to 10% range?

Joe Kernen
Mary Ann Bartels

Longer term, you can get back up to 10%. But now we're normalizing somewhere around 5-6%. On the 10-year chart, we formed a triangle pattern. If we break upside and sustain, we go to 5% and higher. If we break downside around 3.6%, rates go lower.
Mary Ann Bartels

What I'm trying to tell clients is not to panic, to stay invested. Be always fully invested but know what you own. The leadership is tech, led by semiconductors, and that will continue to drive markets out to the end of the decade. When that leadership ends, that's when you peak.

You're looking for euphoria, very high valuations, and tremendous leverage in the system as hallmarks of a major peak.
Charles Merrill in 1928 told everyone to get out of the market. Between his comment and October 1929, the market went up another 90%. They were all mad at him.

Joe Kernen
Mary Ann Bartels

That's the hard part. The biggest problem with perma-bears is that by the time they are finally right, the market never even comes down to where they first got negative. It's usually doubled.

That's why you should always have a diversified portfolio and not have a concentration.

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