Inflation, Fed policy, and dollar outlook (with Scarlet Fu)

Yields sideways , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Charles Schwab 7.8
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kathy Jones 8.5

Inflation, Fed policy, and dollar outlook (with Scarlet Fu)

dxy

Dollar has been falling... diversification away from the US... president is all in favor of a weaker dollar... opens the door to a softer dollar.

18 calls

-+0

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

2/13/2026 10:41:21 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.81%	-0.91%
2/11/2026 7:00:21 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.24%	-0.12%
2/9/2026 4:30:10 PM	short term down	6 days later	+0.30%	-0.30%
1/30/2026 7:01:03 PM	short term up	7 days later	-0.81%	-0.81%
1/29/2026 7:00:16 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.97%	-0.48%
12/15/2025 6:00:31 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.12%	-0.06%
12/12/2025 11:30:18 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+0.12%	-0.06%
12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.03%	+0.02%
12/11/2025 6:01:13 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.03%	+0.02%
12/10/2025 6:01:08 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.07%	+0.04%

Show all 10 dxy results

yields

Kathy Jones says Fed has no real impetus to cut rates given strong economy, fiscal stimulus, and inflation above target. This implies yields likely to remain rangebound in near term as Fed stays on hold.

CPI report showed inflation relatively contained; bond yields fell. What comfort does this give the Fed?

Scarlet Fu
Kathy Jones

CPI helps but core services still pushing up inflation; Fed looks at PCE, not CPI. Strong economy, fiscal stimulus, inflation above 2% target means Fed has no real impetus to cut.
Steepening yield curve; you say another path of least resistance is a lower dollar. Talk through how you see this playing out.

Scarlet Fu
Kathy Jones

Dollar has been falling after decade-long rally; diversification away from US; investors moving to other markets like emerging markets; Fed easing, global growth helps; president favors weaker dollar, geopolitical risks open door to softer dollar.
Treasuries traded like safe haven; 30-year auction well bid. Do auctions matter as tell on sentiment?

Scarlet Fu
Kathy Jones

30-year auction notable; well-bid signal people looking for duration, still view US Treasuries as safe haven; tariff uncertainty dying down encouraged buying.
Reports China instructing banks not to load up on Treasuries. Is that taking shape?

Scarlet Fu
Kathy Jones

Haven't seen huge movement in data; might be political signaling; doesn't square with information we have.
Do you look at technical factors?

Scarlet Fu
Kathy Jones

Follow technicals closely; tells about sentiment, trend; divergence makes me question my view.
Mike McKee noted tariffs coming into CPI more than anticipated. Do you worry about data integrity due to BLS cutbacks?

Scarlet Fu
Kathy Jones

Worried about integrity due to cutbacks in personnel and survey funding; can't make good decisions without good data.

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