We're past the point of no return on debt. When debt service payments squeeze out spending like plaque in the circulatory system, it's the same dynamic. There's a supply-demand issue - the budget deficit means debt must be sold. Bonds have been a bad investment. A particularly vulnerable period is after midterm elections and before the presidential election.

The bond market will either provide high enough real returns or be manipulated through financial repression - driving yields down with asset buying, possibly including foreign exchange controls. This is usually accompanied by high taxation and higher inflation. In either case, bonds are relatively unattractive and money goes elsewhere.

The US cannot fight a war in the Middle East and Asia simultaneously - it's overextended. This realization has huge geopolitical implications. Taiwan is very serious because it's not just political, it's chips. China could blockade and stop chip exports for a week - all AI stocks would crash.

Great technology changes produce bubbles because nobody can get it exactly right. You have to spend a ton to capture market share or risk losing it. When wealth grows a lot relative to incomes, there's vulnerability. Bubbles burst when wealth needs to be converted into money. We're rising close to levels seen in 2000 and 1929.