Finding "Goldilocks" Crude Oil Price & ETFs Tying Energy to AI Boom

Yields

NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

Tortoise Capital 7.0
Other
Rob Thummel 8.0

Finding "Goldilocks" Crude Oil Price & ETFs Tying Energy to AI Boom

WTI

wti

Longer term, I think, you know, at tortoise we think $70 is probably a good, it's kind of the good, goli-lox scenario price Current $65 price includes $5 geopolitical risk premium; $70 balances producer returns with consumer affordability and inflation concerns; acknowledges upside risk from potential supply disruptions but sees base case as stable.

5 calls

+13

slightly better than random

12/11/2025 10:00:16 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-0.21%	-0.10%
9/2/2025 6:23:01 PM	long term down	61 days later	-4.56%	+4.56%

Asks for thoughts on US-Iran tensions and oil price direction.

Nicole
Rob Thummel

Current oil prices around $65 include about $5 geopolitical risk premium from US-Iran tensions.

Goal of US administration is to keep gasoline prices low, which they believe can be achieved.
Asks if $70 is more likely than $60 or $50 given recent price strength.

Nicole
Rob Thummel

Long-term, Tortoise sees $70 as ideal Goldilocks price - adequate producer returns without causing consumer inflation.

Important to avoid oil prices impacting inflation going forward.
Asks about likelihood of military strike given Iran's tough talk and strategic position.

Nicole
Rob Thummel

Iran could disrupt global oil supply through Strait of Hormuz, which would send oil well above $100, but this is not their base case.

Global oil inventories are good, markets are oversupplied, but geopolitical tensions create risk premium.
Discusses Strait of Hormuz importance and Saudi spare capacity as near-term solution.

References team analysis and RBC capital research on supply alternatives.

Nicole
Rob Thummel

Promotes four Tortoise ETFs: Essential Energy (TNGY), Electrification Infrastructure (TPC), Nuclear Renaissance (TNU.K), and AI Infrastructure (TCAI).

Natural gas demand driven by AI and LNG exports; AI needs electricity infrastructure; nuclear power growing; AI infrastructure offers alternative to mega-cap tech.
Notes TCAI up 45% in 6 months and asks about catalysts for continued growth.

Nicole
Rob Thummel

Catalyst is AI capital spending by hyperscalers on data center infrastructure components.

Data centers expanding to enormous sizes, requiring more storage, networking, and cooling equipment.

SignalTube

markets at a glance