Geopolitical and energy supply outlook (with Haslinda Amin)

Asks whether any deal is better than the status quo.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

The status quo is not great; corporate stockpiles for supply chains and energy are running low. Everyone has an interest in the Strait of Hormuz opening and the conflict ending.

Iran has activated its leverage by monetizing/controlling the Strait of Hormuz; it's unclear they would give that up easily. The fact that it's on the negotiating table is significant.

Asks what both sides might be willing to give in a deal.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

Original US/Israeli fundamentals (removing enriched uranium, no nuclear program) are not close to being met. Iran is asking for an investment fund. The landscape has shifted, but critical pieces remain the opening of the strait and compromises on other areas.

We've been here before with tentative deals that fall apart on details. Both sides must also satisfy domestic hardliners.

Suggests Trump may declare the war over to claim success.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

Trump is keen to end hostilities, but if Iran senses how much the US wants to end the war, Iranian concessions may become limited, causing the deal to fall apart.

Iran may keep control of the Strait of Hormuz through licensing/fees. The core issues remain unresolved.

Notes the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's only leverage.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

Iran also has the ability to strike US bases in the Gulf, creating additional geopolitical risk for host countries.

Asks if the current economic resilience can be sustained given the war is three months old.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

Markets have been hotter than expected, but corporate stockpiles are running low (some clients down to <30% of what they need). Availability of energy for summer travel is a key conflict juncture point.

Corporates are doing better than expected now, but there's a period of weeks before they start saying they're struggling and demand destruction sets in.

Asks how painful it could get in H2 2026 and H1 2027.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

If the strait remains closed, food security becomes a real issue (fertilizers can't get out, impacting crops in Southeast Asia). Expect rising prices and critical issues around energy/electricity grids.

Tech/data center companies are conscious of energy/water usage competing with grids for citizens. Countries' fiscal positions may be strained on energy subsidies. IMF and ECB projections show a big impact.

Asks if expansion plans in Indonesia and the Philippines will take a backseat.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

There are opportunities in tech and tech-adjacent sectors, and in logistics helping countries bring back food, vaccines, and energy grid components (national resiliency).

Variable geometry in geopolitics is now being applied to trade and resiliency.

Asks about key messaging from Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Haslinda Amin

Angela Mancini

Hegseth's speech will be watched for what he says about Iran and China. The US-China summit seemed to go well; expect messaging that the US continues to have a floor in the relationship. Not expecting something too dramatic.

Hegseth was just in China with Trump, which is unusual for a defense secretary.

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