Fed policy outlook and AI labor disruption (with Vonnie Quinn)

Fed is locked on hold with a hawkish skew; the distribution of risks to rates is widening to the upside. Cuts require significant, cumulative labor market damage—a high bar given current data. Inflation concerns (sticky goods, tariffs, geopolitics) dominate the reaction function. The AI debate (investment inflation vs. productivity disinflation) is a secondary, longer-term narrative. AI labor disruption is a structural red herring, not a cyclical policy driver.

yields

Policy is well-positioned, meaning on hold for longer, but the distribution of risks to rates is widening.

4/29/2026 8:23:42 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.59%	-0.30%
3/16/2026 8:12:49 AM	long term up	62 days later	+10.02%	+10.02%
3/12/2026 2:13:06 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+0.65%	-0.65%
12/17/2025 11:29:24 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.53%	-0.27%
11/17/2025 8:30:14 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.19%	-1.19%
11/13/2025 7:13:56 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.96%	+0.96%
11/7/2025 2:24:31 AM	medium term sharp down	21 days later	-0.34%	+0.51%
10/22/2025 6:37:14 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.85%	-0.93%
9/16/2025 1:12:43 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.64%	-0.82%
9/11/2025 7:54:53 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.66%	-0.33%
9/10/2025 1:15:07 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.37%	-1.18%
9/9/2025 6:42:19 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.88%	-1.44%
8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.00%	+2.50%
8/20/2025 5:59:24 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-6.88%	+3.44%
8/20/2025 1:53:18 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-6.88%	+3.44%
8/20/2025 10:38:49 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-6.88%	+3.44%

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