Introduces the show and asks about the US ability to fund the Iran war and the geopolitical impact.

The US can print money to fund the war, but this risks inflation and higher interest rates as bond vigilantes demand compensation. The US has already depleted munitions, and replenishing them requires rare earths from China, giving China strategic leverage.

Asks if the Iran conflict has changed US-China relations, citing Trump's comment on China supplying Iran.

The Iran war has made China and Russia winners, and the US a strategic loser. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea via Houthis, two critical chokepoints. China holds all the cards due to its monopoly on rare earths needed for US munitions.

Asks how to win a war against a country that can rearm at lower cost and hold out longer.

Iran can use a rope-a-dope strategy, taking punishment and waiting for the US to exhaust itself. Control of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea gives Iran leverage over global trade in oil, fertilizer, aluminum, and sulfur.

Notes Brent crude at $110, spiking to $126, and asks if higher oil has caused a recession.

2% GDP growth is lackluster, not hot. Oil price elasticity is very low in the short run (0.1), so demand destruction is minimal. The US is drawing down inventories; when they run out, prices will spike further, causing factory shutdowns.

The UAE left OPEC because the Iran war increases the discount rate on future oil revenues, incentivizing accelerated pumping. Other Gulf states may follow, leading to lower oil prices in the long run, but near-term spikes remain.

Plays a clip of Jerome Powell describing the economy as resilient with strong data center investment, and asks for agreement.

The economy is lackluster, not hot. GDP growth and productivity were lower in 2025 than 2024. The US is treading water, not gaining momentum.

Asks about Kevin Warsh's potential monetarist policies and the Fed balance sheet.

Warsh can control the money supply by changing reserve requirements and regulations, as laid out in my book 'Making Money Work'. He will likely reform the Fed's research staff, which has a 50:1 Democrat-to-Republican ratio and rejects monetarism.

Asks which asset classes are most at risk of correction.

Pivot away from high-tech into hard commodities. We are entering a commodity super cycle driven by rearmament. Examples: ferrovanadium up 90%, lithium up 39-52%, tantalum up 133%. Commodities will have spikes but general upward drift.

Asks how oil lifts all commodity boats.

Commodity indexes like Bloomberg are heavily weighted in oil, so oil price increases lift the entire index.

Shows a chart of gold vs 10-year yield and asks if rising yields are bad for gold.

Rising yields take some steam out of gold, but the cyclical bull market will peak at 6,000-7,000. Gold is consolidating around 4,600 and will take off again.