Fed Outlook and Credit Market Opportunities (with Tom McKenzie)

explicit

NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Invesco 8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Alexandra Ivanova 7.5

yields

December is a done deal. Refers explicitly to a December Fed rate cut, which would put downward pressure on short-term yields.

9 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/28/2025 3:52:51 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.60%	-1.60%

Markets are betting December is a done deal for a Fed cut. Your view?

Tom McKenzie
Alexandra Ivanova

December is a done deal because we don't have much data before the meeting. The bigger question is 2026.

Given fiscal expansion, Fed cutting, and regulatory relief, growth could stay robust, leading to less cutting in 2026 than markets price (3% rates).
Alexandra Ivanova

Risk/reward in rates is slightly to the upside. Not buying bonds for capital appreciation, more for carry.
Alexandra Ivanova

I see an opportunity for curve steepening in 2026. The administration wants lower rates, but that needs an inflation premium in the back end.
Alexandra Ivanova

Credit fundamentals are still strong, a surprise to the upside, but won't drive future performance given valuations.

It's a tale of two halves - some sectors like chemicals are really struggling.
Alexandra Ivanova

I'm finding rotation opportunities in UK high-yield, particularly in consumer-facing names and gamers affected by the budget.

Market technicals are softening, December is less volatile, next year will be a stock-picker's market. Good quality names are very strong.
Alexandra Ivanova

UK gilt front end is a good place to be (Bank of England easing). The belly of the curve (10-year) might struggle, suggesting curve steepening.

Long end is helped by the DMO not issuing much there.