It might be wise not to get too bearish on the dollar near to a while. That's got that level of support from the FED not being in a hurry to ease again.
While acknowledging dollar weakness trend, emphasizes near-term support from Fed policy and strong US data limiting downside.
How to parse short-term dollar moves vs fundamental issues like debasement trade?
Shery Ahn
Sean Callow
Trump's comments may be offhand; need to hear from Treasury on dollar policy; too early to say if major change.
Very illiquid time of day for FX markets when comments made; response dramatic but context matters.
Trajectory for dollar rest of year given strong US data?
Shery Ahn
Sean Callow
Wise not to get too bearish near-term; Fed not in hurry to ease supports dollar, limits downside.
Similar episodes in Q2 2025 with liberation day tariffs followed by recovery; growth rebounding into year-end.
Implications of Trump's yo-yo comments and increased dollar volatility for reserve currency status?
Avril Hong
Sean Callow
Blasé attitude may have lingering impact; gradual movement away from dollar underway, chipping away at dominance.
Portfolio flows more important than trade flows; process gradual but real, started about 12 months ago.
How helpful for Japanese yen?
Avril Hong
Sean Callow
Super helpful now; rate check on Friday squeezed hedge fund shorts; BOJ intervention timing good when markets overdone.
Commitment of traders showed loaded short yen positions; takes heat out of carry trades.
Which emerging market currencies appealing?
Shery Ahn
Sean Callow
Mixed bag; Chinese yuan has strong external position, PBOC resisting appreciation pace; India, Turkey would welcome dollar pullback.
Korean won has domestic confidence concerns; Thai baht linked to gold having trouble containing strength.