The iPhone is not spared; it's just a delay. Given the memory cost hike, Apple must raise iPhone prices to maintain profit margins. The question is when and how much.

IDC had already baked a $100 price hike on Pro Max models into their forecast. However, given the rate of increase seen on other products (up to $300-500 on some variants), I now think the Pro Max could see a $200 increase.

I think the Pro Max could go up as much as $200. Two reasons: 1) The upgrade cycle is compelling because Apple Intelligence features are only available on iPhone 15 Pro and later, creating a strong upgrade reason for a large portion of the installed base. 2) Pro Max buyers are less price-sensitive; a $200 increase over a 36-month installment plan is only about $5 more per month.

The impact on churn will be negligible for these reasons.

That's why Apple will be strategic about which models get price hikes. Base and older models might see half the increase. The days of $50 increases are gone. Apple is making these announcements now to psychologically prepare consumers, so the launch story is about value, not price.

Apple understands brand proposition and is seeing growth in emerging markets through financing. They are being very strategic.