Depending on which way it goes, David, it could be, you know, if oil prices stay up, the global economy will be in a much lower growth rate, a higher inflation, interest rates would hike. Beschloss frames 'if oil prices stay up' as the negative scenario, implying current elevated prices are a baseline assumption with continued upward pressure due to supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz conflict.

interest rates would hike... Kevin Warsh was selected by the president to reduce interest rates in the U.S. His first act... there might be a scenario of a hike, which is the opposite of what we would have thought a few months ago. Explicitly links sustained high oil prices to higher inflation and consequently higher interest rates, reversing prior expectation of cuts.