Fed Meeting in October Will Be Tricky, Wilding Says

Yields cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

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Asset Manager $2100.00B
Tiffany Wilding 9.0

Fed Meeting in October Will Be Tricky, Wilding Says

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THE MEDIAN EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL CUT AGAIN IN DECEMBER. THE FEDERAL RESERVE FACES DOWNSIDE RISK TO THE LABOR MARKET AND IS CAUTIOUS DUE TO LIMITED DATA AND UNCERTAINTY. Inflation pressures easing and economic adjustments are reducing risks of rate hikes, but downside labor market risks and data limitations make the Fed cautious, likely leading to lower yields in the short term.

16 calls

-2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/15/2025 10:59:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/2/2025 6:11:21 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	-3.11%	+4.66%
9/30/2025 9:58:43 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.36%	+1.36%
9/17/2025 10:02:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/16/2025 9:04:34 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+1.64%	-2.47%
9/12/2025 11:53:46 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.17%	-1.59%
9/11/2025 5:44:45 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.66%	-0.33%
8/22/2025 6:06:13 PM	short term down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.05%
8/12/2025 10:24:43 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+2.43%	-3.65%

Show all 9 yields results

AND CORE CPI UNLOCKING LOWER BOND YIELDS GOING INTO THE FEDERAL RESERVE DECISION. JOINING US IS TIFFANY WILDING. IS THIS A SOURCE OF COMFORT FOR THIS FEDERAL RESERVE NEXT WEEK?

Host
Tiffany Wilding

WELL, I DO NOT KNOW. CERTAINLY IT IS GOOD NEWS ON INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. THE ARGUMENT THAT WE HAVE BEEN MAKING IS SYMPTOMATIC OF THIS REPORT IS THAT THE ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT TO TARIFFS IS COMING THROUGH LESS ON A PRICE ADJUSTMENT AND INSTEAD COMPANIES ARE FINDING WAYS TO DEFEND MARGINS BY OFFSETTING OTHER COSTS. AND I THINK THE FACT YOU SAW ANOTHER HEADLINE AROUND A LARGE RETAILER THAT IS DOING SOME LAYOFFS AT THE HIGHER EXECUTIVE LEVELS, IN OUR MINDS THAT IS SYMPTOMATIC OF THAT, THAT THEY ARE FINDING WAYS TO CUT COSTS. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS THAT THERE IS DOWNSIDE RISK TO THE LABOR MARKET. I DO NOT KNOW IF THEY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY TAKING A SIGH OF RELIEF, BUT WE NEED TO SEE THE LABOR MARKET DATA WHEN THE GOVERNMENT REOPENS. AS YOU AND MIKE MENTIONED, LET CUT IN OCTOBER AND THE MEDIAN EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL CUT AGAIN IN DECEMBER.
HOW MUCH OF A FORWARD LOOK CAN THEY GIVE US? WHEN CHAIRMAN POWELL GOES INTO THE NEWS CONFERENCE HE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH VISIBILITY. HOW MUCH GUIDANCE CAN HE OFFER FOR DECEMBER AND BEYOND?

Host
IT IS INCREDIBLY --

Mike
Tiffany Wilding

IT IS INCREDIBLY TRICKY AND I AM NOT SURE THEY WILL OFFER A TON OF GUIDANCE. THEY WILL SAY WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF DATA AND THERE ARE PRIVATE SOURCES. EVEN THERE IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE FED'S PREVIOUS SOURCES OF PRIVATE DATA, MAYBE THEY ARE NOT GETTING MORE. IT IS A TRICKY SITUATION. THEY WILL BE LOOKING AT MARKETS AND I THINK THE NEWS FLOW IN ORDER TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON. IT WILL BE TOUGH IN TERMS OF

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