Chris Vermeulen on SpaceX Excitement, Silver & Gold's Slowdown

Equity trend is an aggressive melt-up; don't fight it. Microcap froth (IWC) is a late-cycle warning, but the top isn't in. The exit signal is a 1-2 week rotation into defensives (utilities/XLU). Stay long broad indices (SPX/NDX), not single-name hype. Gold/Silver charts are broken post-blow-off top; avoid, more downside likely. The key macro risk is a dollar breakout above 100, which would be bearish for all risk assets. For now, the path of least resistance is up.

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Chris Vermeulen on SpaceX Excitement, Silver & Gold's Slowdown

silver; gold

dxy

I really like the dollar. I think the dollar, it's been under pressure for a while, but it has been building a base for the last year or so. And it is showing signs of strength.

metals

I still think there's downside potential. I still think we could see both metals drop potentially 20% from where we are. ... the short-term trends are firmly down.

ndx

I prefer the stock indices like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ. I really like those because they're slower moving but you can ride the whole tide up.

Jenin

Asks about the optimism behind another leg higher in S&P 500 and Nasdaq after eight weeks of gains.
Chris Vermeulen

Long-term and short-term trends are up. Money is flowing aggressively into stocks, especially technology, small caps, and microcaps, not into safe havens like utilities or dividend stocks. Sentiment is risk-on. The recent pause is a breather before higher prices. Do not fight the trend; stay long equities.
Jenin

Asks how to participate in the hype phase without being overexposed if sentiment shifts.
Chris Vermeulen

We are in a hype phase. Nvidia's stellar earnings, dividend boost, and $80B buyback still led to a negative close. SpaceX's 5:1 stock split before trading are tactics to boost prices. Markets are doing everything to stay higher. Investors should be long but prefer slower-moving indices like S&P 500 and Nasdaq over volatile sectors like semiconductors or memory.
Jenin

Asks if the surge in microcap activity is a healthy sign of risk appetite or a late-cycle warning.
Chris Vermeulen

The microcap surge is a late warning sign. Volume in IWC (microcap ETF) has spiked. People are moving into the most aggressive stocks in a hype phase. A correction is likely at some point, but we are still in a melt-up. The market is not topping yet. Watch utilities and dividend stocks: when they outperform the S&P 500 for 1-2 weeks, a significant pullback is near.
Jenin

Asks about the recent breakdown in gold and silver.
Chris Vermeulen

Precious metals had a blow-off/exhaustion move earlier this year. Charts show damage and low volume after the collapse. Many got burned buying the peak. Gold and silver are digesting the prior rally. There is still downside potential; both metals could drop 20% from current levels. Long-term trend is up, but short-term trends are firmly down. Step aside and focus on equities where the trend is clear.
Jenin

Asks about the importance of the dollar's strength for market exposure.
Chris Vermeulen

The dollar has been building a base for a year and is showing signs of strength. If it breaks and rallies above 100, it could signal equities breaking down and bad news ahead. For now, sideways dollar is ideal for stocks to keep rising. The dollar's recent uptick reflects global fear, which also pressured metals. The dollar is a key barometer: weekly closes above 100 would be very bearish for equities and precious metals.

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