I still like gold as well... We are just going through this huge debasement cycle right now. And I think that's likely to continue... Every time there was a debasement cycle, the S&P 500 underperformed gold, which is happening right now. And I think that could potentially continue if the debasement cycle continues. Thesis based on long-term historical currency debasement cycles (4th since 1800s) driven by fiscal deficit, debt-to-GDP, and inflation. Gold outperforms equities during such periods.

Argues the relationship where higher rates benefit mega-cap tech is breaking down. Hyperscalers are issuing massive debt ($100B in Q4), increasing duration/interest rate sensitivity, and free cash flow is declining due to high capex. This makes them vulnerable in a steady/higher rate environment amid rotation to other areas.

I still like the Russell 2000... For small caps to outperform you need speculation... you need a good manufacturing cycle. And I think we are on the cusp of a potential manufacturing upcycle for the first time in three years. Rotation from mega-caps to small caps driven by fiscal tailwinds and a changing market reaction function where higher rates are now seen as cyclical, not restrictive. A potential manufacturing upcycle provides fundamental support.

When asked if rates need to be lower for small caps to benefit, responds 'I think steady works.' The core thesis of rotation and cyclical strength does not require lower yields, just not restrictive. Implies a view of rates staying in a range.