Trump Terminates Canada Trade Talks; Intel Rallies on Upbeat Forecast

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Trump Terminates Canada Trade Talks; Intel Rallies on Upbeat Forecast | Bloomberg Brief 10/24/2025

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We expect market pricing for the Fed cut next week to still hold, but inflation is still punchy and sticky, suggesting a cautious stance; liquidity pressures are monitored closely which could pressure markets. The market is expected to move cautiously up as the Fed may hold the current path or delay cuts; inflation pressures and labor market uncertainty warrant caution; liquidity strains could limit upside.

32 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/24/2025 10:29:43 AM	short term up	7 days later	+0.59%	+0.59%
10/20/2025 1:11:12 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.93%	+0.96%
10/14/2025 10:09:14 AM	short term up	5 days later	+1.60%	+1.60%
8/6/2025 7:02:59 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.92%	+1.92%
7/23/2025 9:26:43 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.38%	+0.57%

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STATE STREET’S CAYLA SEDER SAYING THE CPI SHOULD CREME A RATE CUT NEXT WEEK. TRENDS FOR OCTOBER DATA, THERE IS EVIDENCE NONTARIFF AFFECTED PRICES AND IMPORTED GOOD PRICES ARE ACCELERATING. THIS COULD PUSH BACK ON CURRENT MARKET PRICES IN JANUARY.

Vonnie Quinn
Cayla Seder

WE ARE EXPECTING SPOT THREE HEADLINE AND SPOT TWO CORE. ONE OF THE REASONS WE EXPECT MARKET PRICING FOR THE FED CUT NEXT WEEK TO STILL HOLD. OUR EXPECTATIONS ARE ALIGNING WITH THE MARKET EXPECTATIONS.
ARE THERE ANY BLIND SPOTS WE ARE NOT SEEING? WHY DO YOU THINK INFLATION IS ACCELERATING AGAIN GOING INTO NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER?

Vonnie Quinn
Cayla Seder

NOW WITH THAT SAID, WE’RE DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS. THIS INFLATION IS LOOKING A LITTLE PUNCHY. WHEN WE LOOK AT PRICES FROM A FOR EXAMPLE TARIFF AFFECTED OR IMPORTED STANDPOINT VS. NONTARIFF AFFECTED OR NONIMPORTED GOOD. WHAT WE’RE SEEING IS THAT NONIMPORTED GOOD INFLATION IS STILL QUITE HIGH AND WE’RE SEEING SOME SIGNS OF TARIFF INFLATION.
THE LABOR MARKET THOUGH IS NOT GREAT EITHER, CAYLA. THE LONGER THE SHUTDOWN LASTS, THE LESS GREAT IT LOOKS. WE CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS. WE FOUND INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS CLIMBED LAST WEEK. 220,000. THE FED CAN’T IGNORE THAT EITHER.

Vonnie Quinn
Cayla Seder

THIS PUSH AND PULL OF THE LABOR MARKET AND INFLATION IS WHAT MAKES THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT SO CHALLENGING. ONE THING THAT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER IS WHY ARE WE SEEING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE AND WOULD RATE CUTS REALLY HELP THAT? IF THIS LABOR MARKET ISSUES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY UNCERTAINTY AROUND POLICY, ESPECIALLY ON THE FISCAL SIDE, AND PERHAPS WHERE TARIFFS ARE GOING, THINGS LIKE THAT, I WOULD ARGUE THAT RATE CUTS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO NATION ISSUE. SIMULTANEOUSLY BECAUSE WE STILL SEE STICKY INFLATION, THE FED -- IT WOULD BE GOOD FOR THE FED TO BE RELATIVELY CAUTIOUS HERE.
YOU’RE SAYING WE MAY NOT SEE A CUT IN JANUARY AND IF WE DON’T, WE WILL LIKELY SEE ONE IN JANUARY. WHAT ABOUT THE SHUTDOWN THEN? HOW MUCH DOES IT IMPACT THE LABOR FORCE? HOW LONG WOULD IT HAVE TO LAST FOR IT TO IMPACT THE DATA THAT WE EVENTUALLY HOPEFULLY SEE AGAIN?

Vonnie Quinn
Cayla Seder

WHERE IT STANDS NOW, IT IS GOING TO BE REALLY TRICKY TO HAVE DATA FOR THE OCTOBER INFLATION PRINT AND DATA INTEGRITY AND DATA QUALITY IS REALLY IMPORTANT. THAT IS FORTUNATELY THAT IS WHY WE HAVE SOMETHING CALLED PRICE STATS AND USING ONLINE PRICES IS HELPFUL HERE, BUT THIS LEAVES THE MARKET OVERALL IN TERMS OF OFFICIAL DATS IN THIS VERY GRAY SPOT. I THINK THAT IS WHY BEING CAUTIOUS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT OR MOST PRAGMATIC PATH FORWARD HERE.
YOU KNOW, YOU ALSO SAY IN TERMS OVER THE MARKET YOU’RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON LIQUIDITY. ARE YOU ACTUALLY CONCERNED OR DO YOU THINK WE’RE SEVERAL MONTHS AWAY FROM ANY KIND OF CONCERN?

Vonnie Quinn
Cayla Seder

I THINK LIQUIDITY IS SOMETHING IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HERE. ONE OF THE BIGGEST RISKS FOR THE EQUITY MARKET RALLY AND RISK ASSETS, WE SEE SOME SIGNS OF FUNDING STRAINS BUT THIS IS NOT TOTAL TURMOIL OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON RIGHT NOW THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF PRESSURE AND IT IS IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT THAT AND THINKING THROUGH WHAT WILL THE FED DO NEXT WEEK? WILL THEY STOP Q.T.? THAT COULD EASE SOME OF THE STRAINS. IT IS SOMETHING WE’RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THAT COULD PUT PRESSURE ON OVERALL MARKETS.

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