NVDA's stunning 85% growth & 15th consecutive beat was met with a shrug—a clear signal of crowded positioning, not a fundamental peak. The forward-looking narrative is an expanding TAM beyond hyperscalers into sovereign AI and physical AI (robotics). Jensen's $100T market impact forecast implies a multi-year, multi-trillion dollar infrastructure buildout is just beginning. Fading this secular trend on near-term positioning is a tactical error.

Markets are unprepared for a Fed hike. The Fed's 2.7% PCE forecast is stale vs. real inflation prints (CPI ~4%). The next meeting will force a hawkish repricing, sending the 2Y UST to 4.25%. Trade is short front-end USTs. In the UK, avoid the front-end but go long 30Y Gilts at 5.75%, as political risk is priced in. For relative value, swap 30Y Gilt cash flows into USD/EUR for a 30-40 bps pickup.

Trump's 'final stages' Iran rhetoric is posturing; he's desperate for a pre-election exit. A short-term deal is being brokered (reopen Hormuz for lifting blockade), creating a bearish skew for WTI if it materializes. However, progress is 'baby steps.' Iran's claims of 30 ships/day through Hormuz are unverified & a fraction of the pre-war 130. The geopolitical risk premium in oil is high, but the catalyst for its removal is not yet credible.

Jamie Dimon warns rates could go much higher due to a capital demand shock. Massive AI investment (approaching $1T/yr) and record government deficits are absorbing global savings. The US faces a $2T refinancing wall at higher rates, which could spook bond markets, especially with persistent inflation. This fiscal pressure, unlike productive investment, raises recession risk. Prepare for wider credit spreads and significant asset price corrections.