AI IPOs and edge computing trends (with Guy, Anna, Tom)

Asks whether the market has capacity to absorb the large IPOs coming from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

Guy

Richard Windsor

Yes, there is plenty of cash in the system, but the key question is whether investors are willing to pay the valuations. OpenAI's continued cash burn is a risk.

Anthropic is close to making money on its services, while OpenAI is burning money for a long period, creating a strong contrast.

Asks about details like lock-up periods and retail vs institutional allocation for these IPOs.

Anna

Richard Windsor

Fundamentals of the businesses and long-term outlook will determine outcomes, not investor side details. Retail is 20-30% of the market, but order matters—being first captures most demand.

SpaceX's data centers in space and Anthropic's revenue growth on limited capacity are positive surprises.

Asks about agentic AI on edge devices versus the cloud, and what it means for investment themes.

Anna

Richard Windsor

Running AI on edge devices is more profitable because you don't pay for compute. As AI agents become credible, local execution is preferred for connectivity, data security, privacy, and personalization.

If your agent doesn't know you and your preferences, it won't be a good agent.

Asks about evidence of increasing revenue per gigawatt from AI data centers.

Tom

Richard Windsor

Revenue per gigawatt is a key metric. Industry standard is $10B/gigawatt—hard to make returns. Anthropic is moving to ~$20B/gigawatt, where good returns are possible even with $60B capex. Nebius also showing improvement.

OpenAI has been stuck at $10B/gigawatt since 2023.

Asks about winners and losers from Computex, particularly regarding Jensen Huang's impact.

Tom

Richard Windsor

Jensen blew up the SaaS-pocalypse story, benefiting ServiceNow, Adobe, Salesforce. Qualcomm and MediaTek are winners due to edge AI processing. Intel is the loser—its response to performance-per-watt claims needs more convincing.

Nvidia's competitors and partners at Computex said their products blow x86 out of the water on performance per watt.

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