China A.I. & Rare Earth Terms, Reaction to Powell & Mag 7 Earnings Drive Early Moves

9/3/2025 4:46:40 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.88%	+0.88%
8/15/2025 4:30:33 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-1.22%	+0.61%
8/13/2025 4:30:09 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.88%	-1.88%
8/8/2025 4:30:21 PM	short term up	7 days later	+0.80%	+0.80%
8/7/2025 4:45:01 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.01%	+1.01%

10/27/2025 3:30:54 PM	short term down	6 days later	+3.09%	-3.09%
10/24/2025 4:31:10 PM	short term down	7 days later	+2.73%	-2.73%
10/16/2025 4:30:21 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.15%	-1.07%
10/14/2025 4:30:26 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.48%	+0.74%
9/17/2025 9:12:08 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.39%
9/5/2025 5:15:08 PM	short term sharp down	7 days later	-0.30%	+0.44%
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8/7/2025 4:45:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.10%	+0.55%
8/1/2025 4:42:53 PM	short term sharp down	7 days later	+1.74%	-2.61%
7/25/2025 4:30:13 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-1.79%	+0.89%
7/24/2025 4:45:08 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.23%	-0.23%

Kevin Hincks

Good morning Nicole. Yeah, I think we're starting today with the reactions to two meetings. The first one. President Trump, and Xi Jinping, the reactions there. And I think that it focused on five things. Nicole. Where else? right. They have a deal, a one-year deal, that they can renew each year on rare earth. Then tariffs. The fentanyl tariffs reduced from 20% to 10%. that's actually good news as President Trump said they have made real action. as it pertains to a fentanyl. Then... Trump. going to uh China. a trip to Beijing coming up next April and then Xi Jinping will be coming to Florida sometime after that is what they said. then. The U.S. will sell chips to China, but not. blackwell chips. That's a key point there. But... The President Trump's over, we're gonna sell them lots of chips, just not black well. And then the final. more Ukraine. both committed to working with each other to stop the war in Ukraine. As you know, China is a big buyer. of Russian oil. So a lot of talking points there. Everyone calling it a successful meeting. There's that. Now! We're also reacting, and we're in my opinion, overreacting to Drone Powell's press coverage yesterday. And that's why I think the markets are eating lower as we get towards the opening. I thought Drone Powell... talking about not a foregone conclusion that a December rate cut is on the table. was. YO!! Mostly I think overreacted. by the overall market. the fed funds. God. Fed Watch tool from the CME drop from 87% to 70% for a December... rate cut January went from 45 to to 20% so. All those numbers came down. Doesn't mean and Dr. Pall never said that he's not gonna lower rates in December. He just said it's not a foregone conclusion. So I think reactions and overreactions is how we start the day in a call.

Yeah, I think that was huge. I mean, the minute we saw that Schmidt was a dissenter and did not want the cut, that told story. You know, you were breaking it down with me. That was excellent yesterday. Breaking news mode, I love that. We had the two dissenters. He had Steven Miron who wanted a half a percent again, not surprise. But the fact that you had Schmidt's now with the... you know, keeping it flat. I thought that told a story that some of the... Committee members, you know, adjusting monetary policy, were not convinced that December was a sure thing. And that's what happened. And that's why people started to question, because he started to ask about inflation again. We don't have the data. So we have to wait and see, maybe. I think that was part of it too. You know, they did say things about, you know, the job market, weakening, and slowing economy. But still some of the prints have been pretty decent. So maybe it's just we have to wait more. We final thought there.

Nicole

Kevin Hincks

Well, just remember, when Jerome Powell talks about the labor market, it's changing. right it's changing why The last 12 months of the Biden administration, the Biden administration, have bridged. 41,000. government jobs per month now since January of the share of the u.s. is down. government jobs. So take those out and you've got a more realistic. job market and so that. as well as lore. spending by the US government that came out in the last GDP report. Everything andcles. things are working against inflation, but also working against the labor market. So, lot going on in terms of the labor market and inflation Nicole.

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