Tom White analyzes Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish shift in communication and modeling, which pushed short-term yields higher. He contrasts this with the positive market reaction to the U.S.-Iran MOU, which lowered oil prices and supported equities. He also discusses Intel's parabolic move due to domestic chip investment and potential Apple partnership, warning of stretched valuations. Finally, he explains SpaceX's recent weakness as profit-taking and increased availability of derivative products.
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Metals
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Intel (cautious up)
Fast Market
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Tom White 4.0
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Tom White 4.0
US rates; INTC; AAPL
6/18/2026 3:30:03 PM
dxy
You're seeing a little bit of strength in the dollar.
| 9/30/2025 1:04:37 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.41% | -0.41% |
ndx
White notes that tech is catching a bit of a bid with the stabilization of yields and the optimistic outlook from the Iran MOU, but the Fed's hawkish tone is a counterweight.
rut
The positive reaction to the Iran MOU and stabilization of yields supports small caps, but the hawkish Fed and rising yields are a headwind. The overall tone is cautiously optimistic but not strongly directional.
wti
You're seeing crude oil down nearly 2% 74.5. We hit three month lows on crude oil.
| 6/12/2026 3:24:39 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -7.34% | +7.34% |
| 4/8/2026 11:00:46 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.37% |
yields
We saw rates rising especially that two year note yield went up to 4.22%. That was the highest level that we've seen since February of 2025.
