Earnings are above expectations, earnings forecasts for 2026 are being revised higher, supportive of risk. Positive earnings and pro-risk backdrop support upward direction for equities.
We expect some steepening from here. Duration looks vulnerable after a strong October. If the pro-risk backdrop continues, duration might sell off somewhat as investors rotate from bonds into equities.
Michael Sneed, BNP Paribas, has risk seeking behavior in this market far from appearing extreme, though investors should expect higher volatility. What signals are you seeing that keep you pro-risk?
Bonnie Quinn
Michael Sneyd
There's a whole range of signals. Despite weaker US data, earnings expectations and credit performance remain supportive. Earnings are above expectations, and earnings forecasts for 2026 are being revised higher. Credit spreads could tighten.
Is the volatility coming from earnings reactions and Fed commentary?
Bonnie Quinn
Michael Sneyd
Yes, post-FOMC there is two-way price action. Debate over whether the Fed will deliver the December rate cut continues. This will likely cause increased volatility as Fed speakers provide commentary.
Are we back into a curve-steepening trade?
Bonnie Quinn
Michael Sneyd
We expect some steepening from here. Duration looks vulnerable after a strong October. If the pro-risk backdrop continues, duration might sell off somewhat as investors rotate from bonds into equities.