Weak data strengthens the view for a December rate cut. Expect a pause after that until the new Fed Chair comes in, then cuts pick up at the back end of 2026.

The degree of future cuts depends on who the new Fed Chair is and how they want to play it.

The bond market is digesting a huge amount of supply from hyperscalers (e.g., Meta $30bn, Oracle $18bn). Spreads have widened over the last three months, and incoming supply may continue that impact.

Technology is expected to play an increasingly important role in the bond market.

Everyone is asking where this ends. It's an arms race. No one knows how it will play out, but a productivity pickup would alleviate debt sustainability fears.

For now, there is value in shorter-dated, highly-rated tech credit. Risks are medium-to-long term, concerning potential downgrades and the high-yield market's ability to digest them.