Markets trade on the present value of future cash flows; wars are bad but the market reaction depends on cash flow impact. Initial sell-off occurred, but strong earnings reports reversed it.

Follow the cash, follow the money. At the end of the day, you're exchanging a lump sum for future cash flows.

Historically, wars have initial muted effects but cash flows matter over time. Winners, losers, and neutral countries emerge; neutral countries profit during wars (e.g., US in WWI/WWII).

The British Empire had debt and consequences; losers get wiped out. Orders change: domestic, international, monetary.

The world is assessing whether the US has the capacity to win the war in Iran, which affects alliances and perceptions of US power. This is changing relationships with China, as leaders in Asia are recognizing China's power and moving toward a tribute system.

US has 750 bases in 80 countries under the assumption of defense; that perception is changing. Iran is a middle power; winning is not clear.

China is accumulating huge financial assets through export earnings, raising living standards, and competing in AI and robotics. They are doing very well economically.

Follow the money; quantity of money and earnings matter.

China's rise will create a tribute system that recognizes power differences, not dictation. The UN system (one country one vote) is impractical. China will not be aggressive militarily but will compete economically, and the RMB will grow as a world currency for transactions.

You will not be able to push around China; it will be a force.

Investors should think about diversification, liquidity, and gold due to uncertainty about money and currency. AI is revolutionary but can create bubbles. Strategic asset allocation is key, not tactical moves.

We're in a turbulent time; value of money is a risk. Diversification includes gold. Liquidity is valuable in a rapidly changing world.