Goldman Strategist on War, Oil, and Equity Risks (with Francine Lacqua)

Yields

NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

Goldman Sachs 9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Peter Oppenheimer 9.0

Goldman Strategist on War, Oil, and Equity Risks (with Francine Lacqua)

wti

If we start to get them going to $100 or more, and they prolonged, then you start to get into global inflation going up maybe 0.7. Oppenheimer provides explicit scenarios for oil price moves ($100+) and their macroeconomic impacts, clearly framing the current shock and a potential sharper upward move.

32 calls

slightly better than random

1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+6.71%	-3.36%
1/13/2026 10:26:30 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.92%	-1.92%
12/19/2025 7:26:29 PM	medium term down	21 days later	+2.57%	-2.57%
11/26/2025 10:19:54 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.35%	+2.67%
10/31/2025 3:16:06 PM	medium term down	21 days later	-3.62%	+3.62%
9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM	short term down	6 days later	-1.09%	+1.09%

Show all 6 wti results

Asks if Iran war changes equity trajectory.

Francine Lacqua
Peter Oppenheimer

Raises risks due to uncertainty. Equities are expensive globally, leaving them vulnerable to a correction, but not a systemic bear market.

Markets had upgraded cyclical performance on growth confidence; anything that dampens that creates vulnerability.
Asks how long elevated oil prices need to last to impact capex and margins.

Francine Lacqua
Peter Oppenheimer

Current oil move implies modest global inflation (+0.2) and growth impact (-0.1). A move to $100+ prolonged would mean inflation +0.7, growth contraction -0.4.

Anxiety is about conflict duration and its effect on growth/inflation mix. Financial conditions have tightened 0.3 since conflict started.
Asks about impact of Strait of Hormuz closure on inflation and shipping.

Francine Lacqua
Peter Oppenheimer

Closure affects both inflation expectations and shipping costs. 20% of supplies through the channel creates significant uncertainty and higher costs.

Diversion of routes takes longer.
Peter Oppenheimer

Does not expect a prolonged or deep bear market. Underlying global growth is robust, earnings are strong, and private sector balance sheets are healthy.

These factors soften second-round effects of a shock.
Asks about private credit risks and read-across to equities.

Francine Lacqua
Peter Oppenheimer

Risks in private credit (e.g., software loans) could see a correction, but not systemic due to less leverage than pre-financial crisis.

In a jittery environment, narratives and risks get exaggerated in price moves.

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