Parabolic moves end badly; expects recovery but watch for trend break (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

10/2/2025 11:42:55 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.26%	+0.63%

Asks Siegel what he makes of the selloff—is it a rethink of sky-high valuations or something deeper?

Romaine Bostick

Jeremy Siegel

This is an 'elevator down' typical of parabolic moves. Trend followers and momentum players had sell signals close to the trendline, and when it broke, they were out.

This is one of the oldest reactions to strong moves in markets.

Asks how this course corrects historically, given the tight concentration and huge multiples.

Romaine Bostick

Jeremy Siegel

Usually you get a sharp movement down, then a recovery. The key is whether it breaks the old highs. If it doesn't and trends down, that could be a more significant downward movement.

Stocks were pricing increases in chip earnings that would extend into the infinite future. Even four years of strong earnings only justifies a 20-25% increase in price, not the 100% we've seen.

Asks about the macro backdrop for the next few weeks, with inflation prints and a Fed meeting, and how the Fed will thread the needle between strong job growth and inflation.

Katie Greifeld

Jeremy Siegel

The macro today was a big jump—a blowout employment report. The non-tech economy is not dying, which is why we got a rotation away from tech rather than a general selloff.

We should not ignore the SpaceX IPO next week. Many people are selling tech stocks to raise cash to buy it.

Asks about the SpaceX IPO and whether it could burst the bubble or harken the end of the bull market.

Katie Greifeld

Jeremy Siegel

There are worries. When people say 'I want a piece of SpaceX and don't care about the price,' that leads to disappointment. Brokerage firms requiring holders to keep the stock for a week or two will reduce supply and may cause the stock to start at a much higher price, then come down 50%.

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