Seema Shah on labor market, equity rally, oil, and macro outlook (with Matt Miller)

Seema Shah expects stabilization in labor data after volatile months, sees AI impact as early-stage with no job losses yet. She views the equity rally as driven by AI earnings delivery rather than macro, and expects oil to stay above $80 due to supply damage even if a Middle East resolution occurs. She forecasts US growth around 2.1% supported by consumer spending, with labor market as key foundation for risk assets.

Yields cautious up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil sideways , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

Principal 6.0
Asset Manager $880.00B
Seema Shah 7.5

Seema Shah on labor market, equity rally, oil, and macro outlook (with Matt Miller)

ndx

She emphasizes AI earnings delivery as key driver of equity rally, with companies continuing to deliver, suggesting continued upside for tech-heavy NDX.

wti

We would still expect oil prices to remain elevated, staying above the $80 a barrel mark through to the end of the year.

3 calls

+28

reliable positive edge across multiple calls

5/6/2026 11:27:29 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+7.77%	+3.89%
3/23/2026 2:06:19 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+7.29%	+7.29%
3/20/2026 12:21:30 AM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+12.42%	+6.21%

Show all 3 wti results

yields

Seema notes yields have risen due to strong economic backdrop and inflation, and equity market is looking through the rise, implying yields may stay elevated or rise further.

Asks about expected read on labor market given AI concerns about job erosion.

Matt Miller
Seema Shah

Labor data has been very unstable over last 3-4 months; looking for stabilization this month. AI impact is still early days, not seeing job losses yet. Small businesses investing in AI and not feeling need to remove staff.

Data moving from one month to another very variable; surveys show small businesses positive on AI investment.
Asks about the rising equity market with 9 consecutive weeks of gains and record highs, noting valuations not high on forward basis.

Matt Miller
Seema Shah

Equity rally driven by AI earnings delivery, not just macro resilience. Companies continue to deliver on expectations, which will be the more significant driver going forward.

Some positivity about macro resilience to Iran conflict and energy spike, but AI earnings delivery is key.
Asks why yields and oil prices aren't higher given prolonged Middle East crisis and falling inventories.

Matt Miller
Seema Shah

Headline fatigue in market; assumption of resolution to conflict by year-end keeps oil from spiking. Bond yields risen due to strong US economic backdrop and inflation. Equity market looking through yield rise to focus on strong earnings.

News flow goes back and forth without clear resolution; assumption oil will flow again.
Asks about resolution of Iran conflict given Iran's preparation and Trump's stated need for unconditional surrender.

Matt Miller
Seema Shah

Even with resolution, oil won't snap back to $50 due to infrastructure damage and supply-side issues; expect oil above $80 through year-end unless significant demand destruction occurs.

Too much damage to infrastructure, too much movement needed on supply side.
Asks about economic weakness in US given K-shaped recovery with upper end doing well but lower end struggling.

Matt Miller
Seema Shah

Still positive on US growth around 2.1% driven by consumer spending. Large companies doing well, small businesses face challenges. Labor market is key: if stable without job losses, consumers can continue spending, supporting equity markets and risk assets.

Hiring at large corporates doing incredibly well; small businesses finding more challenges.

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