US/Israeli strikes on Iran overnight, despite hopes for a deal. Key sticking points remain: Strait of Hormuz control and enriched uranium stockpile. Israel may escalate in Lebanon, risking derailing broader Iran-US talks.
Yields
NDX
RUT

implicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Joumanna Bercetche 4.0
Iran/Israel/Lebanon geopolitical update (with Francine Lacqua)
5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM
wti
Strikes on Iranian vessels and potential escalation in Lebanon create supply disruption risk, but ongoing negotiations suggest possibility of de-escalation, leading to volatility.
176 calls
+7
slightly better than random
Russia is stepping up attacks on Kyiv because it can, as Ukraine struggles with resources diverted to the Iran conflict. A peace deal is not close; the US is consumed by Iran and not interested in aimless negotiations.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Tony Halpin 4.0
Russia-Ukraine conflict update (with Francine Lacqua)
5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM
Path forward for Iran deal is very difficult after overnight strikes. Sequencing is key: focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz first. China benefits from US having multiple foreign policy dilemmas. Ukraine making gains but US help is limited due to Iran focus.

implicit
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
RUSI 2.5
Policy Institute
Rachel Ellehuus 7.5
Geopolitical risk analysis: Iran, Ukraine, China (with Francine Lacqua)
5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM
wti
With almost 2,000 ships waiting to pass through the Strait, that's going to hit not just fuel prices, but commodity prices.
yields
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and potential for higher oil prices could fuel inflation expectations, putting upward pressure on yields.
Markets are rational: chaotic world creates spending on resilience (military, energy, tech). Bond yields rising because growth is expected to be okay, not recession. Central banks shouldn't hike but may gesture. UK political risk is priced in. Resolution of Iran situation could unlock depressed cyclical parts of market.

explicit

implicit
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
JPMorgan 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Karen Ward 9.0
Market strategy: geopolitics, bonds, UK outlook (with Francine Lacqua)
5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM
ndx
Chaotic world creates spending on technology resilience and companies are taking advantage of technological change. Markets are focused on this bigger theme.
16 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
wti
My base case is we will see a resolution... If we see this resolution or at least this step towards reopening the Strait...
15 calls
+26
reliable positive edge across multiple calls
yields
Bond yields are rising because growth is expected to be okay. The bond market is telling you there is economic resilience.
33 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)