Tech selectivity, oil fragility, and macro outlook (with Paul Allen)

Apple's price hike signals limits to the rally; AI still has legs but requires selectivity. Oil is fragile due to geopolitical risk; if ceasefire holds, prices could fall to $60s. Gold is a portfolio hedge as the dollar weakens. Expect one more Fed rate hike.

Yields cautious up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX

RUT cautious up

Oil cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals cautious up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

USD cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Javelin Wealth Management 4.2
Wealth Manager
Poker Mishra 8.5

Tech selectivity, oil fragility, and macro outlook (with Paul Allen)

dxy

We don't expect the US dollar to continue to be at this level of strength we expect it to... slowly weaken slowly through the year.

2 calls

+0

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/24/2025 8:43:44 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.33%	-0.66%
11/25/2025 8:33:54 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.46%	+0.73%

metals

Poker Mishra expects the dollar to weaken slowly, which should support gold prices. Central bank buying, especially from China, provides a floor. This implies a cautiously bullish outlook for metals.

rut

If you look at it, the Russell has outperformed all the other indices in the US as well. So focusing a bit more on value.

wti

If the peace talks continue as hoped, and if there is a resolution achieved, then we will be in those 60s level again by the end of the year.

yields

Poker Mishra expects one more rate hike this year, which would push yields higher in the short term.

Paul Allen

Is the aggressive selling in Korea and tech a reason to be fearful of a deeper pullback?
Poker Mishra

Apple's price hike is a reality check showing there's not unlimited money. The AI rally has legs but investors must be selective, focusing on the memory supply-demand gap.
Paul Allen

Can you give stock-specific ideas along the value chain?
Poker Mishra

We look at baskets. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are key memory beneficiaries. If China produces a more effective chip, these stocks could correct.
Paul Allen

Does anything look too frothy, like GPU up 2000%?
Poker Mishra

The story changes daily, but revenue growth supports it. The bigger worry is debt raised by non-cash-flow-positive companies, which could create a bigger bubble.
Paul Allen

What about private market valuations vs public?
Poker Mishra

Private valuations may not be sustainable due to lack of revenue visibility and hidden private debt. Focus on fundamentals and cash flow.
Paul Allen

What are you looking at as a hedge around the tech story, like emerging markets?
Poker Mishra

We are allocated to India but now neutral. The Russell has outperformed, so we focus on value. In Asia, look at Japan's domestic sectors like financials and tourism.
Paul Allen

What does the oil price decline tell you about supply-demand?
Poker Mishra

It tells more about market behavior not factoring in risk. The ceasefire is fragile; a re-escalation is possible. Supply consistency is the problem, not just demand.
Paul Allen

Do you have an oil price outlook?
Poker Mishra

If peace talks continue as hoped, oil could be in the $60s by year-end, but that's a big caveat.
Paul Allen

Do you buy energy companies now?
Poker Mishra

We have exited our energy hedge as we feel we are at the end of this crisis.
Paul Allen

Where do you see gold heading?
Poker Mishra

Gold has been a casualty of the dollar debasement trade being washed out. It's now behaving like gold, linked to the dollar. We expect the dollar to weaken, supporting gold. Central bank buying (especially China) provides support.
Paul Allen

How accurately is the market pricing the Fed's behavior?
Poker Mishra

Markets are a bit aggressive in pricing rate hikes. Hawkish language itself will help. We expect possibly one rate hike this year as inflation is far from the 2% target.

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