Richard Sharma argues the AI boom is the dominant market driver, overshadowing geopolitical risks and higher oil prices. He warns of a bubble but says it won't burst until interest rates rise significantly (10-year yield above 5%). He sees international markets outperforming the US and recommends quality stocks as a hedge.
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Rockefeller
8.0
Asset Manager $122.00B
Richard Sharma 8.5
Asset Manager $122.00B
Richard Sharma 8.5
5/7/2026 10:49:42 AM
dxy
Despite all this money flooding into America... the dollar has in fact in the margin weakened. It hasn't strengthened against most currencies.
| 10/6/2025 6:10:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.47% | -0.23% |
metals
Gold used to be a good hedge, but because it had such a terrible rally, it's no longer become a risk free asset. There's a risk that embedded in that price. Gold will do okay.
| 2/23/2026 6:21:09 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.23% | +3.23% |
ndx
Sharma describes the AI boom as the dominant market driver, with companies increasing capex. He notes the Nasdaq doubled from Oct 1999 to its peak, suggesting the current parabolic phase could continue. However, he warns it is a bubble that will burst when interest rates rise.
rut
Sharma notes the Russell 2000 is 'playing a bit of catch-up' but is not the focus. The rally is concentrated in AI and large-cap tech, suggesting small caps are not participating in the same momentum.
wti
Sharma says oil prices have 'settled at a much higher plateau' but the AI boom is 'swamping' the oil price effect. The market is reacting to ceasefire headlines, but the fundamental disruption to supply via Hormuz persists.
yields
I'm watching the 10 year in the US obsessively. It's not in any sort of a major breakout, it's stuck between 4 and 4.5%.
| 4/7/2026 6:43:47 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.14% | +0.14% |
| 12/15/2025 5:47:04 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.39% | +0.39% |
| 8/15/2025 1:45:12 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.52% | -0.76% |
