Daalder sees a stalemate in the Iran conflict, with both sides overestimating their leverage. He argues the US underestimates Iran's willingness to suffer and that the current negotiators lack the nuclear expertise needed for serious talks. On Ukraine, he sees no progress until Russia's inability to win is recognized.

inferred
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals

inferred
Harvard 1.8
University
Ivo Daalder 8.5
5/13/2026 3:12:17 AM
dxy
The 'game of chicken' scenario and geopolitical uncertainty typically create volatility in the dollar as a safe haven, but the inflationary pressures and potential for a US economic slowdown create countervailing forces.
wti
We're underestimating Iran's willingness to suffer grave damage. We're in a stalemate until one side decides they've had enough.
4/29/2026 9:31:07 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.66% -4.00%
4/3/2026 12:20:17 AM medium term sharp up 21 days later -14.27% -21.40%
yields
The prolonged conflict and inflationary pressures discussed imply sustained upward pressure on yields.

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