Kate Sullivan discusses the stalled Iran negotiations, the closed Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's domestic-focused midterm messaging in New York.
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wti
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of a deal with Iran are expected to keep oil prices elevated, contributing to high gas prices.
176 calls
+7
slightly better than random
Jason Gale explains that the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC is caused by a rare strain (Bundibugyo) with no approved vaccine or treatment, and the global response is hampered by cuts to USAID and the CDC.
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Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Jason Gale 5.0
5/23/2026 7:18:53 PM
Patrick De Haan warns that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz makes a $5 national average gas price by July 4th a strong possibility, and $6 by Labor Day if demand doesn't slow.
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wti
The longer the straight remains closed, we could see an elevated risk of the national average reaching the $5 gallon mark... if Americans don't slow down at $5, we could see $6 by Labor Day.
1 calls
-3
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
Clint Henderson notes that while travel demand is still record-breaking, consumers are nearing a breaking point due to rising costs, with 32% saying they may scale back summer plans if prices continue to rise.

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implicit
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The Points Guy 1.0
Other
Clint Henderson 5.0
5/23/2026 7:18:53 PM
wti
Rising jet fuel costs are driving up airfares and airline costs, indicating upward pressure on oil prices.
yields
Fed Governor Waller not ruling out rate hikes and long-term inflation expectations rising suggest upward pressure on yields.
Jeremy Konyndyk warns that the Ebola outbreak in the DRC is significantly undercounted and will be exceptionally difficult to contain due to the dismantling of USAID, a weakened CDC, and the US withdrawal from the WHO.
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Refugees International 2.5
Nonprofit Organization
Jeremy Konyndyk 8.5
5/23/2026 7:18:53 PM
Kate Davidson discusses the swearing-in of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the pressure from Trump to cut rates, and the growing internal Fed momentum for a potential rate hike due to rising inflation expectations.

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Petraeus emphasizes the imperative of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, implying continued closure would sustain upward pressure on oil prices.
176 calls
+7
slightly better than random
yields
The conversation at the Fed is shifting from rate cuts to potential rate hikes due to rising inflation expectations, which would push bond yields higher.
136 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
Nancy Cook analyzes Trump's primary endorsement power, the creation of a 'YOLO caucus' of lame-duck Republicans willing to defy him, and the challenge for Republicans to appeal to independents given Trump's low approval on the economy.
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General Petraeus defines victory in Iran as restoring freedom of navigation without Iranian tolls, but notes core issues like nuclear enrichment remain unaddressed. He emphasizes the need for institutional military change due to drone warfare lessons from Ukraine and warns that reduced U.S. soft power (USAID cuts) undermines long-term security gains.
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Former CIA Director and CENTCOM Commander 2.5
Other
General David Petraeus 9.0
5/23/2026 7:18:53 PM
wti
The Strait of Hormuz closure is a core issue; restoring navigation is the imperative, implying ongoing supply disruption and upward pressure on oil prices.