Former general on the Iran conflict, military readiness, and soft power (with David Gura)

Asks how he defines victory in Iran a couple of months into the conflict.

David Gura

General David Petraeus

Victory is an agreement restoring freedom of navigation in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz without Iran taxing ships; but core issues (nuclear stockpile, proxy support) may not be addressed.

Iran has almost 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium; they insist on controlling the Strait and charging tolls, which is unacceptable.

Asks what he learned from traveling in the region about how Gulf states see the conflict.

David Gura

General David Petraeus

Views vary by country: UAE is outraged, Qatar lost 70% of LNG capacity, Saudis are brokering; all want the Strait reopened without Iranian control; there will be enormous investment in alternatives to the Strait.

This will have profound implications for energy routes and investment strategies.

Asks if Gulf nations are reevaluating their relationship with the U.S.

David Gura

General David Petraeus

They likely are; the U.S. was denied access to bases, and the war is being run from South Carolina due to vulnerability to Iranian drones.

The threat from Iranian drones is much greater than during his tenure as CENTCOM commander.

Asks how the conflict should reframe U.S. military readiness, especially regarding drones.

David Gura

General David Petraeus

The U.S. has not learned all the lessons from Ukraine; drones are the future of war—90% of Russian casualties are from drones; autonomous systems and drone swarms are coming, and the U.S. lacks solutions.

Ukraine is going from 3.5 million to 7 million drones per year; the U.S. needs institutional change in how it trains, operates, and buys equipment.

Asks if we are at a tipping point in Ukraine.

David Gura

General David Petraeus

Yes; with sufficient support (e.g., 90 million euros from EU), Ukraine can increase drone pressure and inflict casualties; Russia has taken 1.4 million casualties and may need a cessation of hostilities.

Last month, Ukraine took back more territory than Russia; Russia's national welfare fund is being diverted to the military.

Asks about the balance of hard and soft power, given USAID cuts.

David Gura

General David Petraeus

Hard power is more prominent, soft power is much reduced; USAID's dismantling undermines the ability to solidify security gains through humanitarian assistance and rebuilding.

Soft power is essential to turn security gains into lasting stability; the U.S. is at risk of losing that capability.

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