Stocks Join Bonds Higher as US-Iran Deal Sinks Oil

Anastasia Amoroso (Partners Group) argues the US economy is resilient due to strong consumer, corporate earnings, and accelerating CapEx from hyperscalers (AI). She sees the Fed's hawkish stance as lacking forward guidance, so rate paths could change. She favors US tech and data centers, and selectively emerging markets enabling AI supply chains (e.g., Asia) or fintech (e.g., Brazil). Oil price decline from 120 to ~75 supports risk assets.

implicit

explicit

inferred

implicit

data centers up

Partners Group 8.0
Private Equity $109.00B
Anastasia Amoroso 9.0

Stocks Join Bonds Higher as US-Iran Deal Sinks Oil

WTI; $SPY; US 10y

dxy

American exceptionalism vs. depressed Europe and sluggish EM (except selective themes) supports USD strength.

metals

No explicit mention; oil decline and strong USD suggest no strong bullish catalyst for metals.

ndx

Strong US economic backdrop (consumer, earnings, CapEx), AI TAM expansion beyond GPUs, data center buildout, and preference to stay in markets imply bullish view on tech-heavy Nasdaq.

rut

Strong domestic economy (consumer, CapEx) benefits small caps, but focus is on tech/AI which may not directly lift RUT as much as NDX.

wti

stunning turnaround to the price of oil... from 120 to now... forward strip pricing in $75 average for the back half of the year

yields

Fed's hawkish tone is not forward guidance; rate paths could change in coming months. No clear direction, but no hike expected soon.

Anastasia Amoroso

The resolution of the supply outage and oil price decline from $120 to ~$75 forward strip reduces recession risk and supports risk assets.

We had buffers (200 days of net imports) and market patience forced a resolution; the conflict didn't drag on as feared.
Investors are resetting focus after oil decline; question is whether to focus on earnings or the Fed.

Tom
Anastasia Amoroso

Focus on economic strength: consumer momentum, great earnings season, and accelerating CapEx (fixed asset investment, hyperscalers). Stay in markets.

The Fed's hawkish tone is not forward guidance; rate paths could change in coming months.
Bank of England vote split (7-2, Meghan Green and Pill dissenting for a hike) shows continued inflation fighting backdrop.

Paul
Market challenge is how to play AI beyond Nvidia.

Tom
Anastasia Amoroso

AI TAM has expanded beyond GPUs to CPUs and memory chips; the trade has broadened. Next phase: agentic AI and workflow automation will drive token consumption, requiring more compute and data center buildout.

We have portfolio companies in data centers seeing strong appetite for compute capacity.
Question: Do European investors still want to buy American after political tensions?

Paul
Anastasia Amoroso

Yes, American exceptionalism persists due to strong economic backdrop (consumer, CapEx, corporate tax rates) vs. depressed Europe (consumer confidence, sluggish spending, ECB missteps).

I was recently in Europe and saw the contrast.
Question: What about emerging markets, which have done well recently?

Tom
Anastasia Amoroso

Selectively like emerging markets enabling AI supply chain (Asia: 60-70% of AI infrastructure manufacturing) and thematic plays like fintech in Brazil.

Not all EM, but themes tied to tech trade.

SignalTube

markets at a glance