Jeremy Grantham argues the US stock market is in a historic bubble, the most expensive ever relative to GDP, and predicts a decline of ~70% back to trend. He advises avoiding US stocks and favoring non-US and emerging markets. He sees AI as a transformative but overhyped technology that will lead to overinvestment and losses, similar to railroads and the internet. He is deeply skeptical of crypto, calling it a useless speculative vehicle, and views SpaceX's valuation as a peak-of-market phenomenon.
inferred
explicit
inferred
implicit
implicit
US stocks (broad) sharp down
GMO
8.5
Asset Manager $63.00B
Jeremy Grantham 9.5
Asset Manager $63.00B
Jeremy Grantham 9.5
US equities; $SPY
6/26/2026 9:00:06 PM
dxy
Grantham advises avoiding US stocks and favoring non-US equities. A rotation out of US assets would likely weaken the dollar.
metals
Grantham mentions gold has made a strong gain over time and contrasts it favorably with crypto as a store of value. This implies a mildly positive view on metals.
ndx
We said a 70-75% decline for the NASDAQ in 2000 and it went down 82. Getting back to trend from here is closer to a 70% decline than a 50% decline.
| 11/10/2025 11:19:50 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -2.87% | -1.44% |
rut
Grantham says 'avoid US stocks' broadly and that the market is the most expensive in history, implying a sharp decline for US small caps (RUT) as well.
wti
Grantham does not discuss oil. The transcript mentions WTI crude at $69 and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, but Grantham offers no view on energy markets.
yields
Grantham predicts a severe equity market decline, which would typically drive a flight to safety, pushing yields lower. However, he does not explicitly discuss bonds or yields.
