'Santa Claus Rally' Started Early, Dawson Says

Yields

NDX cautious up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

RUT

Oil

Metals sideways , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

USD

NewEdge Wealth 6.0
Asset Manager $5.00B
Cameron Dawson 8.0

'Santa Claus Rally' Started Early, Dawson Says

metals

it wouldn't be surprising to see some kind of consolidation Gold extremely overbought on long-term charts after powerful uptrend. Probability of repeating recent doubling returns is low per Renaissance Macro analysis, though uptrend remains with central bank buying and momentum.

ndx

we're still very much in an uptrend in this market... we're still able to carve out new highs because of those earnings estimates Qualified by risks: high valuations, complacency (low VIX), expectations creating potential for volatility/chop.

4 calls

+1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

11/3/2025 10:40:01 PM	short term up	6 days later	+0.69%	+0.69%
10/15/2025 10:43:07 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.91%	+0.95%
8/20/2025 7:15:16 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.65%	-0.83%

Show all 3 ndx results

What new highs can equity markets achieve next year?

Host
Cameron Dawson

Respect the trend but don't ignore the risks going into 2026. Market is in uptrend led by procyclical areas like industrials, banks, transport, supported by rising earnings and GDP estimates.

This is the key fundamental underpinning for new highs. As long as estimates are revised higher, it's good for risk-taking.
Cameron Dawson

Risks include valuations, complacency (low VIX), creating potential for volatility despite new highs.
Is positioning stretched? What would change that?

Host
Cameron Dawson

Institutional positioning at 62nd percentile (slightly overweight), discretionary investors neutral - room for more to enter. Households fully invested (AAII survey at highs, margin loans up 40%).

Institutional sidelining explains why dips get bought quickly.
What about $7T in money market funds as dry powder?

Host
Cameron Dawson

Money market funds are savings/cash balances, not necessarily waiting for equities. Falling rates might push some to other investments, but not a direct $7T equity inflow.
Current rally: technical positioning vs. fundamentals/2026 earnings?

Host
Cameron Dawson

Year-end price action reflects light volume, window dressing, positioning chasing. Rotation started early (value outperformed growth 5% since Nov 1).

Try not to read too much into year-end action.
Should commodities be maintained in portfolios for 2026?

Host
Cameron Dawson

Commodities as inflation hedge. Powerful uptrend but probability of repeating recent doubling returns is low. Gold is 'Chuck Norris' but extremely overbought on long-term charts, could consolidate.

Respect uptrends but don't ignore risks. Gold driven by central bank buying and retail momentum trading.

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