Geopolitical risks and oil price sustainability (with Morgan)

Yields

NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

explicit

BCA Research 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Marco Papitch 7.5

Geopolitical risks and oil price sustainability (with Morgan)

dxy

Big China bank deal this year may include a currency component, which will put more downward pressure on the dollar Potential currency deal with China and ongoing tariff relief expected to weaken dollar

4 calls

-4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/2/2026 11:51:35 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	+0.73%	-0.37%

wti

Oil prices sustainably rise this time. They didn't last time. So I think that's something to watch. Iran domestic instability and geopolitical tensions creating sustained upward pressure on oil prices unlike previous episodes

2 calls

+23

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

Marco Papitch

Iran feeling more vulnerable in early 2026, backed into corner making them dangerous unlike in 2025

Domestic stability different now - significant protests in Iran not present throughout 2025
Marco Papitch

Oil prices sustainably rose this time, didn't last time - that's something to watch

Market action different this time compared to 2025
Marco Papitch

Supreme Court decision on tariffs could shake up bond market and thus equity market - look for that at end of February
Marco Papitch

Expect more tariff relief - from 14.2% overall tariff level to closer to 10% by end of year, helpful form of fiscal stimulus

President Trump struggling ahead of midterms to respond to affordability issue
Marco Papitch

Big China bank deal this year may include currency component, putting more downward pressure on dollar and CNY

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