Fed and economy reporter on labor market and Fed policy (with Heidi Stroudwatt, Shery Ahn)

Enda Curran expects solid US jobs data, with the three-month average potentially the strongest in a year. He notes a dramatic shift from rate-cut to rate-hike narratives but says a near-term hike is unlikely without a big upside surprise in both jobs and inflation.

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Enda Curran 5.0

Fed and economy reporter on labor market and Fed policy (with Heidi Stroudwatt, Shery Ahn)

yields

Curran notes the shift from rate-cut to rate-hike narratives and that a strong jobs number could fuel hike expectations, implying upward pressure on yields.

Asks about the labor market outlook and the shift from rate-cut to rate-hike expectations.

Heidi Stroudwatt
Enda Curran

Expects solid payrolls; a consensus print would make the three-month average the strongest in a year. Hiring is broad-based across health, construction, leisure, and manufacturing.

AI is boosting manufacturing through data center buildout and equipment. The labor market is finding its feet.
Notes the dramatic turnaround from rate-cut to rate-hike pricing (70% odds by year-end) and conflicting Fed signals.

Shery Ahn
Enda Curran

The shift is dramatic: policymakers moved from worrying about a weak jobs market to worrying about inflation. A near-term rate hike is unlikely without a big upside surprise in both payrolls and inflation.

The adjustment is from a cutting bias to a hold bias. The next week's inflation data and the Fed meeting with new Chairman Kevin Warsh will be key.

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