Mark Cudmore discusses the subdued market reaction to US-Iran military escalation, noting strong correlation between oil and equities. He describes the current market as being in the 'volatile end game of the AI capex bubble,' expecting another violent pop before a major drawdown. He highlights vulnerability in South Korea and other tech-heavy markets, and expects the BOJ to hike despite yen weakness.
Yields
explicit
implicit
Metals
implicit
Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Mark Cudmore 7.0
Financial Media
Mark Cudmore 7.0
6/11/2026 6:49:50 AM
dxy
Cudmore states dollar yields are positively correlated to oil. With oil rising due to geopolitical tensions, the dollar is likely to strengthen in the short term.
ndx
We're in the volatile end game of the AI capex bubble... volatility is going to be what we're going to expect for pretty much the rest of this year.
rut
Cudmore expects a major turning point in stocks, with a wave of new supply (IPOs, megacap selling) being negative. He expects another pop then a peak in a couple of months followed by a big drawdown. Small caps (RUT) would likely be affected by this broader negative supply dynamic.
wti
Cudmore notes oil is positively correlated to dollar yields and inversely correlated to stocks. The market is buying the theory of a peace deal, but military escalation continues, suggesting upward pressure on oil in the short term.
Lanhee Chen analyzes the US-Iran conflict, noting the tension between President Trump's desire to end hostilities (to address high energy prices) and the need for a victory narrative. He discusses political pressure on Trump, the dominance of economic issues for American voters, and the inward-looking nature of the American public, which is fraying strategic alliances.
implicit
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Hoover Institution
6.0
Research Institute
Lanhee Chen 7.5
Research Institute
Lanhee Chen 7.5
6/11/2026 6:49:50 AM
wti
The war has taken a really significant toll on the price of energy and the availability of energy.
yields
With energy prices rising due to the Iran conflict, inflationary pressures increase, which would push yields higher in the short term.