It's pretty straightforward. There's two big levers. First is that iPhone demand for the next three quarters is likely to outpace the street. The street's looking for around 7%, I expect it to be 10%. That, of course, is one of the big focus. That's why the stock was moving around after market yesterday. It's all about the iPhone. It's not about AI features, less about product features. It's more about this massive upgrade pool they had back in 2021 when iPhone grew 39%, then the subsequent 15 quarters it basically was down a half a percent. Now we're starting to reap the benefits of that big cycle. So we'll see some better iPhone numbers and expectations. Second, the Apple Intelligence bar is so low coming into the new Siri next year. Hope springs eternal when it comes to investors, and Apple Intelligence I believe will be the biggest step forward since the iPhone itself. It is a massive potential for them to contextualize personal data with some sort of digital assistant. They've set a high bar for next year, around March-April timeframe. Anticipation is going to be good for the multiple. So when you put those two together, sales will be better because of the iPhone upgrade pool, and separately, the multiple expands because of anticipation of what's going to happen with Apple Intelligence.

That's part of it. Dan's onto something. Apple working beyond GPT and OpenAI. At WWDC in June, they said they're open to other developers, platforms, large language models, specifically Gemini. The question is how much are they just allowing developers to use Gemini model in iOS apps or leaning on Gemini to power the new Siri. It's a daunting task to build personalized bots around personalized data. I expect more than one model, not just OpenAI. Financially, if they do something with Gemini, they'd license tech from Google. Apple's given guidance expecting modest increase in AI capex and expenses, a few billion dollars next year, which is chump change compared to hundreds of billions being spent. Bottom line, it's a cost Apple can manage and maintain margins investors like.

Regulatory concerns have diminished over time. Google's search deal, which accounts for about a fifth of Apple's earnings, moving positively is a sign of softening regulatory tone. So the dynamic around Google likely won't cause regulatory issues. If Apple wants to do bigger moves like acquiring Perplexity, that may be more challenging. Big tech wants those companies, but regulatory makes that less likely.

Central question for Apple over next 2-3 maybe 5 years, how much time investors will give them. Bar is high given high expectations for next Siri. If April brings disappointment, stock may trade off but investors will give more time. Competitively, next year only big event is new device from OpenAI in 2027. Nothing significant in consumer hardware AI changing competition now. Consumers love Apple devices. Recent iPhone resurgence and strong guidance show commitment to platform and upgrade pool. Devices are entrenched in lives, not just phones. This will give Apple more time. Stock may vary on AI changes, but investors and consumers will be patient given big investments over a decade.