SpaceX Valuation & Blue Origin Setback (with John Tucker, Alex Simonova)

Blue Origin rocket explosion shows space launch is not easy. SpaceX has huge lead with 160-170 launches last year. SpaceX lowered IPO valuation to $1.8T to set up for success. Valuation comps suggest ~$2T possible: $1B+ from launch (Rocket Lab comp), $600B satellite constellation, $400B AI business. Investors must buy into Elon Musk's long-term vision.

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SpaceX Valuation & Blue Origin Setback (with John Tucker, Alex Simonova)

John Tucker

SpaceX cutting IPO valuation to $1.8T. Blue Origin rocket exploded overnight.
George Ferguson

Blue Origin had extreme failure testing rocket engine. Similar problem in April with ASM satellites. They have work to do on New Glenn rocket. SpaceX has been very successful with 160-170 launches last year, huge lead on competitors.
John Tucker

Can Blue Origin ever compete with SpaceX?
George Ferguson

It's a function of money into R&D that can close the gap over considerable time. Bezos has plenty of money but it will take time.
John Tucker

How do investors value SpaceX at $1.8T?
George Ferguson

SpaceX likely lowered valuation to ensure overperformance. Using comps: Rocket Lab valued at 90x revenue. SpaceX space business ~$11-12B revenue from internal launch gives ~$1B+ value. Colleagues see $600B for satellite constellation, $400B for AI business. Total could approach $2T.
John Tucker

How weird is the SpaceX filing?
George Ferguson

Elon Musk is a big dreamer - colonizing Mars, data centers in space. Investors must sift through that and look at what they have now. Having data centers in space one day seems natural if technology develops.
John Tucker

Is Musk being a dreamer part of the appeal for SpaceX investors, similar to Tesla?
George Ferguson

Yes, investors must totally believe in Elon Musk and his dreams. He created a brand new car company in the US when no one had done it for decades.

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