Iran Crisis Shakes Markets: 3 Top Stock Picks Right Now with Special Guest Jason Bodner

2/22/2026 5:52:08 PM	short term up	7 days later	+7.42%	+7.42%
12/28/2025 5:38:11 PM	short term down	7 days later	+0.41%	-0.41%
12/14/2025 5:00:00 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+2.09%	-1.05%

Traders have moved to sidelines. When will it be safe to step back into the stock market?

Louie

Jason Bodner

Major historical calamities (WWII, COVID, etc.) all turned into market opportunities over time. This Iran situation is no different. Long-term investors should not get out; forward returns are positive.

Shows chart of fears vs. market since 1900, noting major events appear as small blips long-term.

Brent crude over $90, storage facilities filling up, Strait of Hormuz closed disrupting shipping. How long will geopolitical shocks last? What to buy?

Mentions Dubai airport hit, professional golfers stranded, diesel/jet fuel prices surging.

Louie

Jason Bodner

Oil spike historically leads to meager 1-month returns but positive 3-12 month returns. Expect 3-4 weeks of continued volatility then resolution. Strait will reopen. This is a temporary shock.

Cites macro strategist Alec Young's analysis of oil spikes since 1990. References Goldman Sachs research expecting Strait to open within 5 days.

Jason Bodner

Buy oversold growth areas unfairly punished (software, tech, discretionary). When resolution comes, oil prices will fall as spring reduces heating demand, causing energy stock pullback.

Software stocks rebounding. Is market just oscillating and looking for bargains?

Louie

Jason Bodner

Real opportunity in software. IGV up almost 12% from Feb 23 low. People still need software for taxes/spreadsheets; won't abandon licenses overnight for AI.

Bought IGB for his kids. Cites ServiceNow, Microsoft as unfairly punished with terrific fundamentals.

Jason Bodner

When 15%+ of IGV stocks are above 200-day MA, forward returns are strong: 6 months up 16% (71% of time), 12 months up 33.6% (92%), 2 years up 69% (100%). This is an investment, not oscillation.

Study from 2006 onward.

NASDAQ stronger than Dow due to software rebound. Any other hot sectors about to perk up?

Louie

Jason Bodner

Tech still great place. Nvidia flat lately but will pick up. Tech and discretionary are engines of bull market.

Semiconductors exploded early year while software tanked, creating flat action now rebounding.

Jason Bodner

Once Iran resolution comes and new Fed chair (Warsh) starts cutting rates, markets will rise sharply. Discretionary is great place to shop for next rally.

Believes Trump won't appoint someone who goes against him. Expects lower rates, volatility resolution.

Neighbors in Boca Raton freaking out about 11% private credit yields not lasting?

Louie

Jason Bodner

Dividend stocks offer more upside with less risk during volatility. If private credit yields collapse, money will flow to dividend stocks.

Shows chart comparing dividend vs non-dividend payer returns/volatility. Friend at Blue Owl ($76B AUM) not worried about private credit.

What did February payroll and retail sales signal?

Louie

Jason Bodner

Payroll was disaster (weather/strike related). Downward revisions past two months. Payroll fallen 5 of last 9 months. Retail sales weak. Puts pressure on Fed to cut rates, possibly in March.

Cites Christopher Waller expecting bad report. Mentions Kashari (Minneapolis Fed) open to two cuts.

Jason Bodner

Layoffs (Jack Dorsey company, AI fears) will probably get worse, putting more pressure on Fed to cut rates - good for tech/discretionary stocks.

Stronger productivity gains - meaning for GDP growth?

Louie

Jason Bodner

Will sustain 5%+ GDP growth rest of year. US is oasis while China/Europe/Middle East have energy issues. AI and deregulation are additional tailwinds.

Productivity gains from energy exports shrink trade deficit. Trump administration removing regulation encourages energy production.

Favorite stock picks right now?

Louie

Jason Bodner

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) - aerospace/defense exposure, strong technically/fundamentally. Intuit (INTU) - unfairly punished in software, strong fundamentals, tax season. Lam Research (LRCX) - makes chip equipment, global shortage. Nvidia (NVDA) - global center of AI chip demand, reasonable PE.

Owns INTU, LRCX. Notes Nvidia has 87.5% fundamental score, $4.5T company at PE 22.

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