Intelligence failures in Iran school strike (with David, Christine)

A U.S. strike hit an elementary school in Iran that was previously part of an IRGC naval base. An intelligence analyst noticed the change in 2019, but the database was not connected to the main targeting system. The U.S. relies on outdated systems from the 1980s, and targeting has become a moribund career field, leading to failures in large combat operations.

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Bloomberg News / Media 7.0
Financial Media
Katrina Manson 4.0

Intelligence failures in Iran school strike (with David, Christine)

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The lack of competence and accountability highlighted in the administration could undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar.

wti

The intelligence failures and ongoing conflict with Iran create uncertainty in the region, likely leading to volatility in oil prices.

A U.S. strike hit an elementary school in Iran that was previously a naval facility, and the targeting database wasn't updated.

Christine
Katrina Manson

An intelligence analyst noticed the change in 2019 and made remarks in a digital database, but that database was not connected to the main authoritative targeting database used for operations.

The changes were never surfaced to the system used to plan operations.
The Pentagon's targeting analysis is not prioritized, and there is a lack of personnel and procedures for cross-checking.

David
Katrina Manson

The U.S. still relies on a targeting system from the 1980s, found deficient as recently as 2020, and hasn't moved to a new machine-assisted system. Targeting has become a moribund career field due to two decades of focus on counterinsurgency, not large combat operations.

Retired Air Force General Jack Shanahan said insufficient effort has been paid to the targeting profession.
The official investigation into the strike was submitted in April and is under review at CENTCOM, with pressure to make it public.

David
Katrina Manson

The investigation was submitted in April and is under review at CENTCOM. Secretary Hegseth said they will make it public. Former DIA chief Robert Ashley called for public release to maintain trust in intelligence services.

There is rising pressure from within the military defense intelligence community for answers.

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