The ceasefire reached on April 8th has been fragile, and renewed hostilities between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon are escalating. The IDF struck several targets at the Mahshahr petrochemical complex, leading to evacuations, marking a return to the caliber of attacks seen at the war's initiation. This comes 100 days into the US-Israeli war against Iran.

President Trump claims ceasefire negotiations are still underway and could resume soon, but Iranian counterparts say talks have stalled. The return to hostilities does not paint a positive picture, as reflected in oil markets this morning.

The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has reportedly been in tatters. Trump told Netanyahu not to retaliate by hitting Lebanon or Iran, but hours later Israel attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran (including Esfahan). There are conflicting views on who is influencing whom, but the two leaders are clearly not on the same page.

This discord has implications for broader negotiations and regional stability, especially if attacks continue.