Strait reopening not immediate; $5-10 risk premium warranted (with Unnamed anchor)

Ben Cook highlights that even with a formal signing, full restoration of Strait of Hormuz transit will take weeks to months, with cargoes not reaching import markets until September. Inventories will continue drawing in the interim. Any negotiation hiccup could send prices higher, justifying a $5-10 risk premium.

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Ben Cook 7.5

Strait reopening not immediate; $5-10 risk premium warranted (with Unnamed anchor)

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Continued inventory draws and robust demand through September, combined with potential negotiation hiccups, suggest upward pressure on prices.

Asks how much risk premium should be priced in before Friday's potential signing.

Unnamed anchor
Ben Cook

A $5-10 risk premium from current levels is warranted due to sticking points in negotiations (Iranian fund unfreezing, tolling arrangement disputes).

Any suggestion the strait remains closed beyond Friday will keep supplies challenged and support higher prices.
Asks how long disruption lasts even if strait reopens tomorrow.

Unnamed anchor
Ben Cook

Full restoration of transit will take several weeks to months; cargoes won't reach import markets until September. Inventories will continue drawing in the interim.

US SPR and foreign strategic reserves are being drawn at ~1 million bpd. Demand remains robust, creating a tight supply situation.

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