Well uh... May be not have. the Nd 83DB last day there. but we do have other forms of private sector data to chew on. So for example, you know why I was in the business. started in the mid-1980s and you know these are manufacturing. in next up. was a big markam over when I joined the industry. and what did the numbers say today? It said that. It was a week or a week. But yeah, for the ninth month in a row, the industrial sector, this is even withy. AI's branding boom. That's the manufacturing sector has been in a contraction mode. for a consecutive months. the employment side below 15 now for 9 consecutive months. So it's telling you at least in the industrial sector that things are... very soft and not getting better.

Well, I think that the stock market... And aggregate is... not just to a review but I've been saying for a while that it's in a classic. Price Bubble. and it's been that way for well over here. uh... but is Jeremy grant them once told me anything that's over a two-standard vision event is in a classic price bubble. So... The market isn't a price bubble, and these come last between one and two years. It's just important for people to know what zone of the investment. environment that the putting money in. So yes, we're in a bubble. The bubble continues to inflate. and just as you were talking with Mark Zandy about the bifurcated nature of the economy between the high end and the middle end part of the consumer sector. And then what you're seeing in the capital spending. backdrop because you know when you take a little bit total text spanning and volume terms. It's ballooned at the 17% annual rates so far this year, but the rest of capital spending is actually negative 3%. So you're seeing bifurcation in the real economy. So it is modeled and confusing. and in the stock market much the same because You know, as you said before, you're looking at the NASDAQ or the S&D 500 which is morphed itself into a mega-capped growth index. but when take a look at sector by sector, Sarah, and you look at the equal weight. Deceptor indices

The median from the peak is actually negative 5%. So the big get bigger. We look beneath the surface. There's actually less to the stock market story right now.

Well done! It depends on the metric you're looking at, right? Like we just talked about by-for-case and you know Sarah. like to talk about the A lot of Fed now cast. It seems to get all the press. No one ever talks about the companion. I'll see you in Lewis Fed now, cast. Nobody talks about it and that's running, bloop. for Q3, it's 0.6. It's not 3.9. You could drive a car. That's what they have different inputs. And that's what I'm talking about. It is a very... Confusing backdrop You know, I found it interesting. that everybody talks about how Hawk SG Powell was. And I think maybe he was just... again. I'm talking on behalf. of the FOMC which itself. is bifurcated but he didn't mention several times out. He is looking more closely at the Fed Baysbook.

and answer to other comments. about the baseball, which I would say. GDP aside GDP gets revised along with the other BLS data. But the benchmark doesn't get revised and it is the most impressive and detailed. piece of information you get on the economy across regions and industry every six weeks. So we run the diffusion index on it. We're running data science. on this metric. and it's taken a back over time. and though. We waited. the commentary by region according to population shares that in a deed. It is showing that the US economy is contracting and I find it incredible. in some sense that we're having this discussion. because Will you take a look at the share? of. the 12 different. regions out the United States that's in the Bishbook. We're down to an 18% share. that's actually and expansion mode. It was 43% back in early September. and actually has not been a 50% or better. our sentence, attude

Well, that's not true. Not true because we've actually been able to. scientifically turn it into its own diffusion index. and you would find that during the winter. That's sure the economy expanding was well-known at the 60%. So I wouldn't say that it's precisely negative for the entire cycle. I don't I don't it doesn't show up in in the way that we look at the information