Despite President Trump saying the Strait of Hormuz would immediately open, shipments and crude exports will take weeks to months to return to pre-war levels. A Bloomberg scoop indicated LNG shipments through the Strait would be at 50% capacity within a month of reopening and 80% within two months. Lebanon remains a major sticking point - Iran's foreign minister said Lebanon is an inseparable part of the MOU, but our sources indicate Lebanon was not part of this MOU. President Trump himself said he needs to sort out the Lebanon issue, referring to Israel's deepest incursion in 25 years.

Exporters in the GCC are trying to rapidly get missing shipments through the line, but many details remain unclear ahead of the signing ceremony on the sidelines of the G7 meeting.