Base case is conflict risks continue to dominate. Oil and commodity prices stay higher for longer, causing a little inflation but also reducing global growth.

This is far from stagflation. We think about three scenarios: normalization (back to pre-war), conflict risks dominate (base case), and stagflation (bear case).

Remain positive on semiconductors and AI-driven themes. Also positive on 'value up' initiatives in countries like South Korea and China.

Chinese consumer companies are surprising with high dividend payouts, sometimes 100%, backed by strong cash flows.

It depends on duration. A few months is okay; years is not. Chinese companies highlight sufficient inventory in the system.

North Asia (China, Korea) has months of oil reserves and is 'pretty safe.' The risk lies in India and Southeast Asia which are more at risk in terms of how long they can hold their breath.